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- 1 apr 2013
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Wat nieuwe grote veranderingen in de kaart vandaag, al zijn deze niet per se het gevolg van nieuwe aanvallen.Key Takeaways
- Russian forces are likely moving to a phase of protracted bombardment of Ukrainian cities due to the failure of Russia’s initial campaign to encircle and seize Kyiv and other major cities.
- Ukrainian forces conducted successful localized counterattacks northwest of Kyiv.
- Russian forces in northeastern Ukraine did not conduct any offensive operations in the past 24 hours.
- Ukrainian forces repelled several Russian assaults in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the past 24 hours.
- Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress reducing the Mariupol pocket.
- Russia may have failed to appoint an overall commander for its invasion of Ukraine, leading to Russian axes of advance competing for limited supplies and failing to synchronize their operations.
Main effort—Kyiv axis: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis are aimed at encircling the city from the northwest, west, and east.
Subordinate main effort along the west bank of the Dnipro
Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations northwest of Kyiv on March 22 and continued to improve their defensive positions and logistical support.[11] Local Ukrainian sources reported Russian forces “entrenched” around Bucha on March 22.[12] Satellite imagery on March 21 additionally depicted fortified Russian artillery positions northwest of Irpin.[13] Ukrainian forces conducted several localized counterattacks on March 22, retaking the towns of Moshcun (northwest of Kyiv) and Makariv (directly west of Kyiv).[14]
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces continue to go over to the defensive, conducting restricted and localized ground attacks that make little progress.
- Ukrainian forces are conducting limited and successful counterattacks around Kyiv to disrupt Russian operations to encircle the city (which has now become extremely unlikely) and relieve the pressure on the capital.
- The Battle of Mariupol continues as a block-by-block struggle with fierce Ukrainian resistance and limited Russian gains.
- Russia is likely struggling to obtain fresh combat power from Syria and elsewhere rapidly.
Supporting Effort #1a—Luhansk Oblast:
Russian forces continued efforts to advance in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, concentrating on limited ground attacks on Popasna and Avdiivka and missile strikes on Kramatorsk airfield.[13]
Note: We have updated our map of northeastern Ukraine to show Russian control over considerably more terrain than we had previously assessed. This change reflects newly acquired historical data rather than new Russian gains. We do NOT assess that Russian forces have made significant territorial gains in northeastern Ukraine for several days, and the revised control of terrain in this part of the theater does NOT reflect new Russian advances or the consolidation of Russian control.
Main effort—Kyiv axis: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis are aimed at encircling the city from the northwest, west, and east.
Subordinate main effort along the west bank of the Dnipro
Ukrainian forces have launched counterattacks to regain territory occupied by Russian troops, liberating the town of Makariv as noted in the update of March 22. The counterattack, probably conducted primarily by Ukrainian forces from the west of the forwardmost Russian positions, has likely made more significant progress than our map of March 22 showed. We have updated our map considerably since March 22 to show our current assessment of the probable front line west of Kyiv. Some of the Ukrainian gains shown likely occurred on March 21, but we have only just acquired sufficient evidence and clarity on the Ukrainian operations to reflect them accurately in the map of March 23.
Local Ukrainian officials claimed on March 23 that Ukrainian forces have encircled Russian troops in Irpin, Bucha, and Hostomel.[4] The mayor of Kyiv claimed that Ukrainian troops have almost pushed Russian forces out of Irpin.[5] The mayor of Irpin claimed that Ukrainian forces controlled 80% of the city as of March 23 but noted that the Russians continue to fire mortars and Grad rockets at the town and that Russian saboteurs and looters are pervasive.[6]
We are unable to corroborate most of these claims, particularly the claimed encirclement of large groups of Russian forces or the liberation of Irpin. The head of the Kyiv Oblast military administration stated on March 22 that Russian forces still controlled Bucha and Hostomel, that Ukrainian forces could conduct only local counterattacks, and that Ukrainian troops were preparing for a larger offensive operation—all of which would suggest that Ukrainian troops have likely not yet encircled Russian troops in these areas.[7] These Ukrainian claims may reflect the expectation that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will continue and cut off Russian forces currently in the Irpin salient. We will continue to monitor the situation closely and update our assessment and map if and when we find clear corroborating evidence of these claimed Ukrainian advances.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 23 that Russian forces attempted to advance on Teterivsk, roughly 70 kilometers northwest of Kyiv, but were repelled.[8] A local Ukrainian government social media report supports that assessment.[9]
