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Breaking News Oorlog - Rusland valt Oekraïne binnen

2Stronk zei:
Key Takeaways

  • Russian Eastern Military District (EMD) Commander Colonel-General Alexander Chayko may be personally commanding efforts to regroup Russian forces in Belarus and resume operations to encircle Kyiv from the west. The Kremlin is highly unlikely to have abandoned its efforts to encircle Kyiv but will likely be unable to cohere the combat power necessary to resume major offensive operations in the near future.
  • Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces conducted major operations northwest of Kyiv in the last 24 hours.
  • Ukrainian forces counterattacking east of Brovary since March 24 successfully retook territory late on March 26.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted limited counterattacks in Sumy Oblast on March 26-27.
  • Fighting continued around Izyum in the past 24 hours, with little territory changing hands.
  • Russian forces continued steady advances in Mariupol.
  • Ukrainian partisans around Kherson continue to tie down Rosgvardia units in the region, likely hindering Russian capabilities to resume offensive operations in the southern direction.
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Supporting Effort #2—Mariupol:

Russian assaults on central Mariupol continued on March 27, though ISW cannot confirm any changes in control of terrain.[23] Russian forces will likely gain control of the city in the relatively near future.
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Key Takeaways
  • Russian forces have not abandoned their objective to encircle and capture Kyiv, despite Kremlin claims that Russian forces will concentrate on eastern Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian forces recaptured the Kyiv suburb of Irpin on March 28. Ukrainian forces will likely seek to take advantage of ongoing Russian force rotations to retake further territory northwest of Kyiv in the coming days.
  • Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks toward Brovary and did not conduct offensive operations toward Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv. Russian operations in northeastern Ukraine remain stalled.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff stated that a battalion tactical group (BTG) of the 1st Guards Tank Army fully withdrew from Ukrainian territory near Sumy back to Russia for possible redeployment – the first Ukrainian report of a Russian unit fully withdrawing into Russia for redeployment to another axis of advance in this conflict.
  • Russian forces continued to steadily take territory in Mariupol.
  • Ukrainian resistance around Kherson continues to tie down Russian forces in the area. Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations in the southern direction.
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Vandaag ben ik dankbaar dat ik niet met een commando mes in m'n oog werd gespiest en afgemaakt.
 
2Stronk zei:
Key Takeaways
  • Russian forces have not abandoned their objective to encircle and capture Kyiv, despite Kremlin claims that Russian forces will concentrate on eastern Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian forces recaptured the Kyiv suburb of Irpin on March 28. Ukrainian forces will likely seek to take advantage of ongoing Russian force rotations to retake further territory northwest of Kyiv in the coming days.
  • Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks toward Brovary and did not conduct offensive operations toward Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv. Russian operations in northeastern Ukraine remain stalled.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff stated that a battalion tactical group (BTG) of the 1st Guards Tank Army fully withdrew from Ukrainian territory near Sumy back to Russia for possible redeployment – the first Ukrainian report of a Russian unit fully withdrawing into Russia for redeployment to another axis of advance in this conflict.
  • Russian forces continued to steadily take territory in Mariupol.
  • Ukrainian resistance around Kherson continues to tie down Russian forces in the area. Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations in the southern direction.
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Key Takeaways

  • We now assess that Russian forces have given up on encircling or seizing Kyiv at this time. Russian forces continue to fight to hold their current front-line trace near the city, however, remaining dug into positions to the east, northwest, and west. Russian forces withdrawing from the area around Kyiv appear to be moving north from behind the front line to positions in Belarus.
  • Russia is directing some reserves to the effort to connect gains southeast of Kharkiv and Izyum with its front line in Luhansk.
  • Ukrainian forces continue to defend in likely isolated pockets in Mariupol. The city will likely fall to the Russians within days.
  • A Russian offensive operation to take the rest of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast would be a significant undertaking. It remains unclear if Russia can harvest enough combat power from Mariupol after securing the city or divert reinforcements from elsewhere on a large enough scale to complete it.
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Main effort—Kyiv axis: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis were aimed at encircling the city from the northwest, west, and east. It is unclear if forces on this axis have been given a new mission and, if so, what it might be.

Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to encircle or seize Kyiv at this time, although they continue to fight to hold their current front lines on both banks of the Dnipro River. Multiple Ukrainian and Western reports indicate that some Russian forces are pulling back from the Kyiv axis.[5] Belarussian media showed videos of Russian forces moving back into Belarus from Ukraine on March 28 and March 29.[6] Russian forces continue to defend their current front-line trace, however, according to the Ukrainian General Staff and additional reporting below.[7] The Russians reportedly continued to bring artillery and missiles, including Iskander systems, toward the Ukrainian border in Belarus, presumably for use in the Kyiv and Chernihiv region.[8]

Subordinate main effort along the west bank of the Dnipro

Russian forces are actively resisting Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Irpin and Hostomel areas and continued to shell Makariv and Irpin on March 29.[9] Russian troops remain dug in in the Bucha and Nemishyev areas just northwest of Irpin.[10] Russian artillery and rockets continue to fire at Ukrainian positions at many locations north and west of the capital.[11]
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Supporting Effort #2—Mariupol:

Russian forces continued to make steady but likely painful progress in seizing the city of Mariupol on March 29. Fighting has been intense, with Donetsk People’s Republic leaders claiming that Russian forces have made significant advances and the Ukrainian General Staff claiming that Ukrainian forces continue to maintain a coherent defense.[20] Mariupol will likely fall within days.
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2Stronk zei:
Key Takeaways

  • We now assess that Russian forces have given up on encircling or seizing Kyiv at this time. Russian forces continue to fight to hold their current front-line trace near the city, however, remaining dug into positions to the east, northwest, and west. Russian forces withdrawing from the area around Kyiv appear to be moving north from behind the front line to positions in Belarus.
  • Russia is directing some reserves to the effort to connect gains southeast of Kharkiv and Izyum with its front line in Luhansk.
  • Ukrainian forces continue to defend in likely isolated pockets in Mariupol. The city will likely fall to the Russians within days.
  • A Russian offensive operation to take the rest of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast would be a significant undertaking. It remains unclear if Russia can harvest enough combat power from Mariupol after securing the city or divert reinforcements from elsewhere on a large enough scale to complete it.
1648621301962.png

Main effort—Kyiv axis: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis were aimed at encircling the city from the northwest, west, and east. It is unclear if forces on this axis have been given a new mission and, if so, what it might be.

Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to encircle or seize Kyiv at this time, although they continue to fight to hold their current front lines on both banks of the Dnipro River. Multiple Ukrainian and Western reports indicate that some Russian forces are pulling back from the Kyiv axis.[5] Belarussian media showed videos of Russian forces moving back into Belarus from Ukraine on March 28 and March 29.[6] Russian forces continue to defend their current front-line trace, however, according to the Ukrainian General Staff and additional reporting below.[7] The Russians reportedly continued to bring artillery and missiles, including Iskander systems, toward the Ukrainian border in Belarus, presumably for use in the Kyiv and Chernihiv region.[8]

Subordinate main effort along the west bank of the Dnipro

Russian forces are actively resisting Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Irpin and Hostomel areas and continued to shell Makariv and Irpin on March 29.[9] Russian troops remain dug in in the Bucha and Nemishyev areas just northwest of Irpin.[10] Russian artillery and rockets continue to fire at Ukrainian positions at many locations north and west of the capital.[11]
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Supporting Effort #2—Mariupol:

Russian forces continued to make steady but likely painful progress in seizing the city of Mariupol on March 29. Fighting has been intense, with Donetsk People’s Republic leaders claiming that Russian forces have made significant advances and the Ukrainian General Staff claiming that Ukrainian forces continue to maintain a coherent defense.[20] Mariupol will likely fall within days.
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Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces around Kyiv held their forward positions and continued to defend against limited Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces are unlikely to give up their secured territory around the city and are continuing to dig in.
  • ISW can confirm Russia is withdrawing some units around Kyiv for likely redeployment to other axes of advance, but cannot confirm any changes in Russian force posture around Chernihiv as of this time.
  • Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours.
  • Elements of the 20th Combined Arms Army and 1st Guards Tank Army are redeploying to support Russian operations on Izyum, but are unlikely to take the city in the near future.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled continuing Russian assaults in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. Russian forces continued to take territory in Mariupol but are likely suffering high casualties.
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Main effort—Kyiv axis: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis were aimed at encircling the city from the northwest, west, and east. It is unclear if forces on this axis have been given a new mission and, if so, what it might be.

Elements of Russian forces around Kyiv, both in the northwest and around Brovary, continued to pull back into Belarus on March 30, though Russian forces continued to defend their front lines in the area and shell civilian targets.[6
Russian and Ukrainian forces do not appear to have conducted significant operations northwest of Kyiv in the last 24 hours.[11] Kyiv authorities reported on March 30 that Ukrainian forces fully control Makariv and parts of Borodyanka.[12] Fighting has been ongoing in Irpin and Hostomel over the past 24 hours, but Ukrainian forces did not secure additional territory.[13]
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Supporting Effort #2—Mariupol:

Russian forces continued to make steady but costly progress in Mariupol on March 30. ISW cannot confirm any specific territorial changes in the last 24 hours. Social media users depicted ongoing Russian use of thermobaric munitions in Mariupol and widespread damage to the city.[24] Russia’s 150th Motor Rifle Division is likely suffering high casualties in ongoing fighting.[25] Mariupol will likely fall within days.
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Weet niet of het zo een heel goed plan is van Oekraïne om in Rusland doelen te bestoken.
 
2Stronk zei:
Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces around Kyiv held their forward positions and continued to defend against limited Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces are unlikely to give up their secured territory around the city and are continuing to dig in.
  • ISW can confirm Russia is withdrawing some units around Kyiv for likely redeployment to other axes of advance, but cannot confirm any changes in Russian force posture around Chernihiv as of this time.
  • Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours.
  • Elements of the 20th Combined Arms Army and 1st Guards Tank Army are redeploying to support Russian operations on Izyum, but are unlikely to take the city in the near future.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled continuing Russian assaults in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. Russian forces continued to take territory in Mariupol but are likely suffering high casualties.
1648711412621.png

Main effort—Kyiv axis: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis were aimed at encircling the city from the northwest, west, and east. It is unclear if forces on this axis have been given a new mission and, if so, what it might be.

Elements of Russian forces around Kyiv, both in the northwest and around Brovary, continued to pull back into Belarus on March 30, though Russian forces continued to defend their front lines in the area and shell civilian targets.[6
Russian and Ukrainian forces do not appear to have conducted significant operations northwest of Kyiv in the last 24 hours.[11] Kyiv authorities reported on March 30 that Ukrainian forces fully control Makariv and parts of Borodyanka.[12] Fighting has been ongoing in Irpin and Hostomel over the past 24 hours, but Ukrainian forces did not secure additional territory.[13]
1648711505438.png

Supporting Effort #2—Mariupol:

Russian forces continued to make steady but costly progress in Mariupol on March 30. ISW cannot confirm any specific territorial changes in the last 24 hours. Social media users depicted ongoing Russian use of thermobaric munitions in Mariupol and widespread damage to the city.[24] Russia’s 150th Motor Rifle Division is likely suffering high casualties in ongoing fighting.[25] Mariupol will likely fall within days.
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Key Takeaways

  • Ukrainian forces successfully conducted local counterattacks around Kyiv, towards Sumy, and in Kherson Oblast and will likely take further territory—particularly northwest and east of Kyiv—in the coming days.
  • Russia is withdrawing elements of its damaged forces around Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy for redeployment to eastern Ukraine, but these units are unlikely to provide a decisive shift in Russian combat power.
  • Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian assaults throughout Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, and Russian forces failed to take territory in the past 24 hours.
  • Russian forces continue to steadily advance in Mariupol.
  • Russia’s preplanned spring draft will begin on April 1 and does not appear abnormal from Russia’s typical conscription cycle. Newly drafted conscripts will not provide Russia with additional combat power for many months.
  • The Kremlin is likely accelerating efforts to establish quasi-state entities to govern occupied Ukrainian territory.
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Supporting Effort #1a—Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts:

Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian assaults throughout Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, particularly concentrated on Popasna and Rubizhne, in the past 24 hours.[21] The Ukrainian General Staff reported at 6:00 am local time on March 31 that Ukrainian forces repelled five enemy attacks over the previous 24 hours and claimed to have destroyed 10 tanks, 18 armored and 13 unarmored vehicles, and 15 artillery systems.[22] The General Staff additionally stated that the Russian air force intensified its operational tempo in the Donbas region in the past 24 hours.[23] The Russian General Staff claimed that LNR forces captured Zhytlivka (northwest of Severodonetsk) and Zolota Nyva (southwest of Donetsk) on March 31, but ISW cannot verify this claim.[24]
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Aniello Dellacroce zei:
Weet niet of het zo een heel goed plan is van Oekraïne om in Rusland doelen te bestoken.
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Wat denk je dat Rusland gaat doen, Oekraïne aanvallen, burgerdoelen bestoken? Probleem als mensen niet zo veel meer te verliezen hebben... er zijn al tienduizenden Oekrainers dood, tactische nuke? Veel steden liggen al plat.

Ze frustreren wel de conventionele oorlog en de Russen zijn die aan het verliezen. Het is een spelletje blink. En Putin gaat echt geen nukes gebruiken nu. Dan is hij echt de lul.
 
Steelpan zei:
Lijkt mij niks mis mee, het valt mij eigenlijk wel tegen dat er in Moskou nog niks opgeblazen is.
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Laten we wel wezen: het moraal onder de Russen is enorm laag. Deels omdat de Russen de Oekraïense bevolking als broedervolk ziet. Dat lage Russische moraal is een belangrijke reden voor het verlies van de Russen. Als Oekraïne dan Russische doelen in Rusland gaat bestoken, heb je kans dat de Russen de Oekraïners ook echt als vijand gaan zien ipv als broedervolk. Dan kan het Russische moraal ineens enorm stijgen. Dus ik betwijfel of dit in het voordeel van de Oekraïners werkt, als dit langere tijd wordt voortgezet.
 
Pren zei:
Laten we wel wezen: het moraal onder de Russen is enorm laag. Deels omdat de Russen de Oekraïense bevolking als broedervolk ziet. Dat lage Russische moraal is een belangrijke reden voor het verlies van de Russen. Als Oekraïne dan Russische doelen in Rusland gaat bestoken, heb je kans dat de Russen de Oekraïners ook echt als vijand gaan zien ipv als broedervolk. Dan kan het Russische moraal ineens enorm stijgen. Dus ik betwijfel of dit in het voordeel van de Oekraïners werkt, als dit langere tijd wordt voortgezet.
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Dat verhaal over het lage moraal van Russische militairen omdat Oekrainers een zogenaamd broedervolk zijn, is imo zwaar overtrokken. Ik durf te wedden dat in 9 van de 10 gevallen dat absoluut niet meespeelt.

Als er al sprake is van een laag moraal komt dat denk ik eerder door het feit dat we in 2022 leven en niemand zin heeft in oorlog en dood gaan voor je land. Ik woon zelf in een stad waar heel veel militairen zitten en ik ken er ook best veel persoonlijk. Als je beroepsmilitair bent in Rusland heb je best een goed leven. Je krijgt een goed salaris, vaak wordt er een gratis woning voor je gefixt, je kan aanspraak maken op allerlei gunstige hypotheekvoorwaarden etc etc… Logisch dat je gewoon een beetje wil chillen in het leven en een gezin wil stichten etc. ipv ergens in een Oekraiens moeras je leven riskeren.

Het broedervolk verhaal is bullshit. f**k Oekraieners. Alleen al dat belachelijke homotaaltje van ze is verschrikkelijk.
 
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