Sticky Beleggingen & De Beurs

[EricR]

Was weer een toprally, hoeveel procent heeft de AEX nou progressie gemaakt sinds het Fannie Mae en Freddie Mac bericht?

 

[MrJ]

Was weer een toprally, hoeveel procent heeft de AEX nou progressie gemaakt sinds het Fannie Mae en Freddie Mac bericht?

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Niet zo heel veel nee...

 

[EricR]

[Afbeelding niet meer beschikbaar]

Vroeger was ik overigens een echte bull maar deze markt is gewoon om zeep en die gekkenrallies zijn voorlopig alleen maar een goed dumpmoment.

 

[SHUTTERSPEED]

Ik kijk meestal naar het eigen vermogen en waar dat uit bestaat. Enkel machines die je aan niemand kan verpatsen of grond/gebouwen. Eventuele solvabiliteit.
Daarnaast naar de concurrentie in de markt en gevoeligheid voor valutaschommelingen. En eventuele overnamekansen.
Soms kies ik een fonds wat al flink afgestraft is en waarvan ik op korte termijn een correctie omhoog van verwacht.
Wat ook vrij winstgevend is op middellange termijn (aantal maanden tot een jaar) is om een aandeel te kiezen wat dus afgestraft is maar nog wel een goede toekomstverwachting heeft. En deze gestaffeld inkopen.
Gevaar is dat je vaak te snel wil kopen. Daarom is het best om ruime correctie naar beneden in te calculeren en je aankopen zo opzet dat je binnen een veilige marge van de huidige koers blijft.
Dit is echter maar aan te raden bij een klein aantal fondsen. geen banken, geen bio

 

[iBurger]

volgens mij wordt het weer tijd om erin te gaan stappen.

het ergste hebben we nu wel gehad, en als er straks een democrat wordt gekozen moet je ook een klap zien.

 

[SHUTTERSPEED]

moeilijk in te schatten of we het ergste gehad hebben. Voorlopig nog even zijwaarts tussen 375 en 420 denk ik.
Zullen nog wel banken met slecht nieuws komen a la lehman. Bij kort opeenvolgende dergelijke feiten zal 375 zelfs nog kunnen sneuvelen. Maar gewoon proberen wat overtrokken afgestrafe aandelen er uit te pikken. Eventueel voor de wat langere termijn.
Dan hoef je niet bang te zijn denk ik.

 

[MrJ]

Na Barclays nu ook Bank of America weggelopen van de Lehman deal. FED heeft gezegd niet te willen ingrijpen dus met een beetje pech krijgt Eric gelijk en krijgen we een zware klap morgen als Lehman (4e bank van de VS) failliet wordt verklaard.

De bad assets schijnen wel voor 30 miljard ergens anders ongebracht te worden (gefinancieerd door alle grote bedrijven in Wall Street). Dollar valt nu en BoA is nu opeens bezig met de overname van Merril Lynch (na Lehman het volgende zorgenkindje). Black Monday morgen?

Lehman sale talks falter, bankruptcy fears grow
Sun Sep 14, 2008 5:24pm EDT

By Dan Wilchins and Glenn Somerville

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Talks to sell Lehman Brothers Holdings faltered on Sunday, triggering concerns that the investment bank may be heading into bankruptcy by the end of the day and prompting banks to call an emergency trading session to unwind positions with the firm.

Barclays Plc, which had appeared to be frontrunner to take over Lehman -- excluding its toxic mortgage-related assets -- said it pulled out of the bidding, as top bankers and regulators met for a third day to try to resolve the crisis.

The British bank withdrew because the U.S. government wouldn't provide financial guarantees, according to a person familiar with the matter.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson remains strongly opposed to using government money in any deal aimed at resolving the Lehman crisis, a source familiar with his thinking reiterated on Sunday.

In a sign that bankers and regulators were preparing for the worst, an emergency session opened on Sunday afternoon between dealers with Lehman Brothers counterparty risk, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association said.

The session was to run from 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. in New York and will involve credit, equity, rates, foreign exchange and commodity derivatives, the ISDA said in a statement.

The aim is to reduce risk associated with a potential bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers.

"Trades are contingent on a bankruptcy filing at or before 11.59 p.m. New York time Sunday," ISDA said the statement. "If there is no filing, the trades cease to exist."

Lehman has been collapsing under the weight of toxic assets, mainly related to real-estate, that are now worth only a fraction of their original prices because of the credit crisis triggered by America's housing bust.

BALANCING ACT

The crisis at Lehman presents a delicate balancing act for Paulson and the Federal Reserve, who have urged Wall Street chiefs to come up with their own solution.

So far this year, the government has sponsored rescues of Lehman rival Bear Stearns and mortgage lenders Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

The authorities don't want to be accused of encouraging excessive risk-taking by bailing out another yet another investment bank.

But they also cannot afford to let a blow-up of Lehman paralyze the financial system and deepen the credit crisis.

Investors have said that if nothing is done by Monday, global financial markets could plunge.

Other financial firms that are weighed down by poorly performing real estate assets are under particular pressure.

Shares of brokerage Merrill Lynch> tumbled 12 percent on Friday, while those of insurer American International Group Inc fell more than 30 percent.

Shares of Washington Mutual Inc, the largest U.S. savings and loan, have declined 80 percent this year.

All three companies have varying degrees of exposure to the mortgages and other toxic assets that were Lehman's undoing.

"Anyone else who has these toxic assets, if they haven't made a full confession, they better do it now," said Matt McCormick, portfolio manager at Bahl & Gaynor Investment Counsel in Cincinnati, Ohio, which has $2.9 billion of assets under management.

"These assets may be hard to unwind, but they can unwind your firm. Lehman tried to deny reality until the bitter end."

Bankruptcy would mark an ignominious end to a once-proud firm, founded by cotton-trading German immigrants 158 years ago. It would also badly tarnish the reputation of CEO d*ck Fuld, who has insisted that his firm could work through its problems to survive as an independent entity.

"BAD BANK"

One solution that has been considered is a hiving-off of Lehman's bad assets into a "bad bank", in which rivals would take stakes, people briefed on the matter said.

It wasn't immediately clear whether such a plan could be part of a bankruptcy filing.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Sunday he suspected "we will see other major financial firms fail," but added that this did not need to be a problem.

"It depends on how it is handled and how the liquidations take place," Greenspan told the ABC program "This Week."

"And indeed we shouldn't try to protect every single institution. The ordinary course of financial change has winners and losers."

At Lehman's headquarters in midtown Manhattan, employees were coming and going throughout the day.

Some entered with what looked like empty duffel bags and gym bags and emerged an hour or so later with full bags.

Few agreed to be interviewed.

"For some people it's business as usual, but other people are worried about liquidation and that they won't have jobs," commented a man who said he worked in the investment banking division.

"Some people are upstairs and working on their projects. Others are worried that they'll be out of work and are packing up," said the man, who declined to give his name.

Security outside the Fed building where talks between banks and regulators over the crisis were continuing was even tighter on Sunday than on Saturday, with nine dark-blue federal government vans blocking the area around the entrance and security guards preventing reporters from getting close.

At 7:30 a.m. three bags of Dunkin' Donuts products were delivered. A caterer smoking outside said she had worked 15 hours the previous day and expected the same on Sunday, with strong coffee one of the biggest demands from the power brokers. "'Coffee, coffee, coffee,' they say, 'the strong stuff,'" said the caterer, who declined to be identified.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke remained in Washington but was in close contact with officials in New York and briefed fellow central bankers on Saturday by telephone about the talks.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Fed have had conference calls with Lehman's counterparties in major markets to discuss the implications of various scenarios for the firm, a source familiar with the situation said.

SYSTEMIC ISSUE?

Some analysts have downplayed the impact of Lehman's woes on broader markets, arguing that signs of the bank's trouble have been emerging for weeks and that clients, banks and other market players have had ample time to limit their exposure.

"Lehman can fail and it won't pose a systemic issue. Anyone who bet that Lehman would be bailed out by government made a silly bet," said William Smith, CEO of Smith Asset Management.

The meetings with the CEOs of Wall Street's top banks were reminiscent of the 1998 bailout of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, two sources familiar with the situation said.

With LTCM, major banks each contributed to a $3.65 billion bailout of the hedge fund, allowing it to be wound down in an orderly way.

This time may be different. The capital of many top banks is already strained by the credit crisis, making them reluctant to fork over funds to help Lehman, whose problems are largely a result of bad bets on the U.S. mortgage market.

Also, while LTCM was a client of most Wall Street firms, Lehman is a competitor.

Lehman has hired law firm Weil Gotshal & Manges to prepare a potential bankruptcy filing, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing a person familiar with the matter.

RATINGS PRESSURE

Dealers said late last week they were continuing to trade with Lehman, which has about $46 billion of commercial and residential real estate on its books.

Although Lehman has reduced its leverage, or debt relative to assets, it still has about $600 billion of assets supported by some $30 billion of equity, meaning the value of its assets need only decline by 5 percent to make the bank worthless.

One key source of pressure on Lehman is its debt ratings.

All three rating agencies said ratings cuts for Lehman were a possibility, as confidence in the firm erodes.

A ratings cut would make it difficult for Lehman to compete in businesses such as long-term interest-rate derivatives.

Ratings downgrades could force the firm to post billions of dollars of additional collateral with its trading partners, further straining the bank's balance sheet.

(Additional reporting by Juan Lagorio, Jonathan Spicer, Robert MacMillan, Jennifer Ablan, Walden Siew, Karen Brettell, and Megan Davies in New York, Rachelle Younglai in Washington and Steve Slater in London)

(Writing by Martin Howell; Editing by Ted Kerr)

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http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0927996520080914?sp=true

 

[MrJ]

S&P futs openen op bijna -3%. Ik ga maar eens slapen en zie 't morgen wel.

 

[terbiz]

fortis -9.8 % even 250 stuks bijgekocht

 

[SHUTTERSPEED]

rt aex 382 -4,37

fortis op 7,86 nu - zit er aan te denken om daar ook gokje te wagen.

 

[SHUTTERSPEED]

handel stil in fortis stil nu

 

[MrJ]

fortis -9.8 % even 250 stuks bijgekocht

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Ik heb bijgekocht op 7,90.

 

[SHUTTERSPEED]

Kredietcrisis: een chronologisch overzicht





RIJSWIJK (AFN) - Een chonologisch overzicht van de kredietcrisis.

Mei 2007: De Zwitserse bank UBS sluit zijn hedgefonds Dillon Read Capital wegens verliezen gerelateerd aan de Amerikaanse hypotheekmarkt.

Juni 2007: Twee hedgefondsen van de Amerikaanse zakenbank Bear Stearns raken in problemen door beleggingen in risicovolle hypotheken.

Augustus 2007: De Franse bank BNP Paribas sluit drie fondsen wegens gebrek aan liquiditeit in markt.

De centrale banken van Europa en de Verenigde Staten pompen miljarden aan extra liquiditeit in de geldmarkt.

September 2007: De Britse hypotheekbank Northern Rock verkeert in liquiditeitsproblemen. Rekeninghouders staan in de rij om geld op te halen. Northern Rock krijgt noodkrediet van Bank of England van 25 miljard pond.

Countrywide, de grootste hypotheekbank van de VS, schrapt 12.000 banen door de problemen op de Amerikaanse huizenmarkt.

Oktober 2007: Miljardenafschrijvingen bij UBS en Deutsche Bank. Ook de Amerikaanse banken Merrill Lynch en Citigroup komen ook met miljardenafschrijvingen.

De Dow-Jonesindex in New York duikt onder de psychologisch belangrijke grens van 14.000 punten door zorgen over de gevolgen van de kredietcrisis.

December 2007: De centrale banken van Europa, VS, Canada, Zwitserland en Groot-Brittannië slaan handen ineen en zetten extra geld in de markt.

Januari 2008: Countrywide wordt voor 4 miljard dollar overgenomen door Bank of America.

Citigroup maakt kwartaalverlies bekend van 9,8 miljard dollar. Het is het eerste kwartaalverlies voor de grootste bank van de VS sinds 1998. Citigroup verkoopt voor miljarden dollars aan nieuwe aandelen.

Februari 2008: De Britse overheid nationaliseert Northern Rock.

Maart 2008: Bear Stearns dreigt om te vallen. De zakenbank wordt met financiële hulp van de Federal Reserve overgenomen door branchegenoot JPMorgan Chase.

De Amerikaanse minister van Financiën Henry Paulson wil het toezicht op de financiële sector in de VS verscherpen.

April 2008: Minister van Financien Wouter Bos noemt de kredietcrisis de ergste crisis in de financiële wereld sinds de beurskrach van 1929.

De Nederlandse zakenbank NIBC moet miljarden euro's lenen van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) om aan zijn verplichtingen te kunnen blijven voldoen.

Juli 2008: De Amerikaanse minister van Financiën Henry Paulson presenteert een plan om de grote hypotheekbanken Freddie Mac en Fannie Mae financieel te hulp te schieten. Ook krijgen huizenbezitters in de VS financiële steun.

Zakenbank Merrill Lynch gaat voor 8,5 miljard dollar nieuwe aandelen verkopen. Merrill Lynch behoort tot de grootste slachtoffers van de hypotheek- en kredietcrisis met afschrijvingen van meer dan 50 miljard dollar.

Citigroup meldt kwartaalverlies van 2,5 miljard dollar. De Amerikaanse bank is een van 's werelds grootste slachtoffers van de hypotheek- en kredietcrisis met afschrijvingen van in totaal 50 miljard dollar.

Augustus 2008: Een jaar na het uitbreken van de kredietcrisis. De wereldwijde verliezen bij banken en financiële instellingen als gevolg van de hypotheek- en kredietcrisis bedragen inmiddels meer dan 500 miljard dollar.

UBS kondigt reorganisatie aan. UBS heeft in totaal meer dan 40 miljard dollar moeten afschrijven door de hypotheek- en kredietcrisis, waarmee de bank het grootste slachtoffer van de crisis is in Europa.

September 2008: De Amerikaanse overheid neemt de verlieslijdende hypotheekbanken Freddie Mac en Fannie Mae over. Het is een van de grootste reddingsacties van de Amerikaanse overheid ooit.

De Amerikaanse zakenbank Lehman Brothers vraagt uitstel van betaling aan nadat de verlieslijdende bank geen koper kon vinden. De belangrijkste kandidaten Bank of America en het Britse Barclays bleken niet bereid Lehman te kopen zonder overheidssteun.

Merrill Lynch wordt overgenomen door Bank of America voor 50 miljard dollar.

AIG, 's werelds grootste verzekeraar, vraagt een overbruggingskrediet aan bij de Federal Reserve van 40 miljard dollar.

Bron: ANP
Publicatiedatum: maandag 15 september 2008 16:08:55
Copyright (c) 2008 - Algemeen Nederlands Persbureau ANP

 

[SHUTTERSPEED]

aex -3% weer op nu 373 punten

 

[MrJ]

Intraday op -5,15%!

Fortis intray op -20% en ING op -13%.


Nu de VS net aan 0,75% in de min terwijl wij -4,2% doen.

 

[MrJ]

Toepasselijke reclame.

 

[MMN]

Clinuvel is nog steeds voor een mooi bedrag te kopen jammer genoeg heb ik al mijn geld er al inzitten 0,156 euro per stuk

 

[MrJ]

Zo, alles trekt alweer bij. Niets aan het handje.

Fortis NV 7,5600 -9,26%
ING Groep NV Cert. 18,1750 -8,95%

 

[MrJ]

Spanning al om of nu AIG gered kan worden. Itt Lehman kan en mag AIG niet vallen, het gaat om 100en zo niet 1000en miljarden die nu op 't spel staan in de gehele financiele wereld.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26740566

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. officials who said "No" to Lehman Brothers may be forced to bend on American Insurance Group Inc (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) because no one is quite sure what would happen if it failed and few want to find out.

This much is clear: A collapse of AIG would sting many of the world's biggest companies across virtually every business sector and could cause chaos in the $62 trillion market for credit default swaps, where it is a major player.

The world's biggest insurer has operations in more than 100 countries and its interests run the gamut from terrorism insurance to sports sponsorships.

"AIG's fingers run deep through the financial system," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "If the AIG domino falls, it could take out a lot of other dominoes."

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Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has made it clear that he has little appetite for expensive bailouts after the government seized mortgage finance firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and pledged $29 billion to swing a deal for Bear Stearns.

He was adamant last week that he would not open federal coffers to Lehman Brothers, and he held firm to his word despite intense pressure from Wall Street. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) filed for bankruptcy on Monday, triggering a global financial market rout.

Lehman's demise served as a painful reminder the biggest financial heavyweights are closely linked through the trillions of dollars worth of transactions they conduct every day. When one player goes down, everyone who did business with that firm faces potential losses. That is the big fear with AIG.

AIG at $1 trillion in assets is substantially larger than Lehman Brothers and it does business with "virtually every financial institution in the world," money manager Michael Lewitt wrote in the New York Times on Tuesday.

"Regulators knew that if Lehman went down, the world wouldn't end. But Wall Street isn't remotely prepared for the inestimable damage the financial system would suffer if AIG collapsed," he wrote.

Even if the government refuses to risk taxpayer money to prop up AIG, public funds may still be needed if an AIG collapse drags down banks that are covered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, depleting its resources. The FDIC has a $45 billion deposit insurance fund.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN1640428920080916

 

[iBurger]

http://hugin.info/134212/R/1227780/260226.jpg

Toepasselijke reclame.

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Inderdaad ja, kende em nog van mijn ING tijd.