Sticky Beleggingen & De Beurs

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Een historische dag voor de Europese Centrale Bank. Vanmiddag maakt bankpresident Mario Draghi bekend of de ECB de Europese economie gaat stimuleren door het opkopen van staatsobligaties. Het zou voor het eerst zijn dat de centrale bank overgaat tot het systematisch en in zulke hoeveelheden opkopen van staatsleningen.

Het opkoopprogramma, genaamd QE (Quantitative Easing), houdt in dat de ECB euro's in de eurozone pompt door staatsleningen op te kopen van banken of financiële instellingen. Geruchten over de omvang gaan van 500 tot 1200 miljard euro.

Volgens de Financial Times zou de 25-koppige raad van bestuur van de ECB gisteravond gediscussieerd hebben over een plan om per maand ruwweg voor 50 miljard euro op te kopen gedurende 1 tot 2 jaar.

In ruil voor dat schuldpapier krijgen banken geld om op hun beurt weer meer leningen te verstrekken. Dat moet de economie een boost geven en de inflatie laten stijgen naar het normale en gewenste niveau van richting de twee procent. Ook zal door de toename van euro's de euro goedkoper worden ten opzichte van andere valuta, wat goed is voor de export.

Hoe werkt 'kwantitatieve verruiming?
Video afspelen 00:45
Voor- en tegenstanders

Vooral Zuid-Europese landen juichen de maatregel toe. Landen met bovengemiddelde staatsschulden, zoals Griekenland, Spanje en Italië, kunnen met meer geld en een lagere rente schulden blijven aflossen ondanks economische krimp.

Eurolanden die er beter voor staan en minder staatsschulden hebben, zijn niet blij met het plan van Draghi. Zij zijn bang dat zij de risico's moeten dragen voor de zwakkere eurolanden. Menig politicus uit Duitsland en Nederland vindt dat het overnemen van overheidsschulden geen taak is voor de ECB.

Minister Dijsselbloem van Financiën benadrukt dat de ECB onafhankelijk is en dat zij dit besluit zonder bemoeienis van politici mag nemen.

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De Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) houdt zijn belangrijkste rentetarief in de eurozone op 0,05 procent.
Dat meldt de ECB donderdag.

Niet alleen de rente waartegen banken kunnen lenen is ongewijzigd, ook de depositorente en de rente voor kortlopende leningen blijven gelijk op respectievelijk -0,20 en 0,3 procent.

Om 14.30 uur licht ECB-voorzitter Mario Draghi het rentebesluit toe. Verwacht wordt dat hij zal aankondigen dat de ECB staatsobligaties gaat opkopen om de economie te stimuleren en de lage inflatie te lijf te gaan.

---------- Toegevoegd om 13:47 ---------- De post hierboven werd geplaatst om 13:47 ----------

De Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) overweegt tot eind volgend jaar maandelijks voor ongeveer 50 miljard euro in de economie van de eurolanden te pompen.
Dat meldt persbureau Bloomberg woensdag, op basis van twee centrale bankiers die een voorstel met die strekking hebben ingezien.

De nieuwe steunmaatregel zou hoofdzakelijk bestaan uit de aankoop van staatsobligaties, waar op zijn vroegst in maart mee zou worden begonnen. Op die manier zou zo'n 1.100 miljard euro in de economie worden geïnjecteerd. De ECB wilde niet reageren op het bericht.

Het voorstel komt van het zeskoppige bestuur van de ECB, dat onder leiding staat van president Mario Draghi. Zij leggen het voor aan de rest van het beleidsbepalende comité, dat behalve uit deze bestuurders bestaat uit de centralebankpresidenten van de eurolanden.

Dit comité neemt donderdag het besluit, dat er volgens de ingewijden nog behoorlijk anders uit kan komen te zien.

Geld

Met de aankopen van staatsleningen bij banken wil de ECB ervoor zorgen dat er meer geld beschikbaar komt in de eurolanden. Banken krijgen door de verkoop van de obligaties meer geld in kas.

Als zij dit geld uitlenen aan bedrijven en consumenten kunnen die hun bestedingen en investeringen opvoeren, waardoor de economische groei een duw in de rug kan krijgen.

Inflatie

Op die manier zou ook de inflatie, de mate waarin prijzen stijgen, weer kunnen toenemen. De bijzonder lage inflatie in de eurozone heeft de vrees aangewakkerd voor deflatie. Dat is een periode van aanhoudende prijsdalingen die een rem kunnen zetten op de economie.

Die rem kan ontstaan als de lagere prijzen doorwerken in stagnerende of dalende lonen van werknemers. Dat brengt vooral mensen met schulden in de problemen omdat hun verplichtingen niet kleiner worden.

Bedrijven

Verder is het bij dalende prijzen minder aantrekkelijk voor bedrijven om te investeren en zou deflatie ervoor kunnen zorgen dat consumenten bestedingen uitstellen, in afwachting van nog lagere prijzen.

Om al deze negatieve zaken te voorkomen mikt de ECB altijd op een inflatie van bijna 2 procent. In december zakte de inflatie echter naar min 0,2 procent. Dat betekent dat goederen en diensten gemiddeld 0,2 procent goedkoper werden.

---------- Toegevoegd om 13:48 ---------- De post hierboven werd geplaatst om 13:47 ----------

Lagarde: renteverhoging Fed medio dit jaar
DAVOS (AFN) -
Het Amerikaanse stelsel van centrale banken, de Federal Reserve, verhoogt waarschijnlijk medio dit jaar de rente. Dat voorspelde Christine Lagarde, de directeur van het Internationaal Monetair Fonds (IMF), donderdag op het World Economic Forum in het Zwitserse Davos.
,,Onze verwachting is dat de renteverhoging eerder medio dit jaar plaatsvindt dan aan het einde van het jaar. Het feit dat de Fed de rente gaat verhogen is op zichzelf goed nieuws. Het geeft aan dat de zaken in de juiste richting gaan'', aldus Lagarde.
De meeste economen verwachten eveneens dat de Fed ergens medio dit jaar de rente zal verhogen. Die staat al sinds eind 2008 op het historisch lage niveau van 0 tot 0,25 procent.

---------- Toegevoegd om 13:49 ---------- De post hierboven werd geplaatst om 13:48 ----------

With less than two hours until the ECB unveils its first official quantitative easing program, the markets appear to be in a unchanged daze. Well, not all markets: the Japanese bond market overnight suffered its worst sell off in months on a jump in volume, although for context this means the 10Year dropping from 0.25% to 0.32%. Whether this is a hint of the "sell the news" that may follow Draghi's announcement is unclear, although Europe has seen comparable weakness across its bond space as well and the US 10 Year has sold off all the way to 1.91%, which is impressive considering it was trading under 1.80% just a few days ago. Stocks for now are largely unchanged with futures barely budging and tracking the USDJPY which after rising above 118 again overnight, has seen active selling ever since the close of the Japanese session.

Looking at the main event, today's start of debt monetization by the ECB in contravention to Article 123 (in Draghi's own words), here is a concise summary from Deustche Bank's Jim Reid:

As we start a monumental day ahead with the ECB almost certain to announce QE - even if they are not yet fully ready to implement it - I can't help wondering what the date will be that we will be able to report that the ECB is out of the money printing game. Once they start it might be incredibly difficult to stop without a political accident on the negative side or a sustainable exogenous positive growth shock. If there is no political accident, will they still be buying bonds into the 2020s? Will they have bought other assets by then or will we have printed money to give directly to citizens before the next decade starts? When QE first started post crisis we felt money printing would be around for years and years. Several years later and we still can't see an end in sight even if the Fed is currently pausing and the SNB has shown that there is an alternative direction for some. So today likely starts a new chapter, even a new section of a book that is nowhere near finished.
A closer look at Asia's bourses shows the Nikkei 225 (+0.28%) remained relatively flat throughout the session amid light news flow and a light economic calendar. Elsewhere, both the Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.6%) after the PBoC rolled-over CNY 269.5bln of lending facilities yesterday and today pumped CNY 50bln into money markets via 7-day reverse repos, with an aim to address Lunar New Year, IPO and Tax payment demands.

Looking at ground zero of today's action, European equities (Eurostoxx50 -0.18%) trade mixed with market participants side-lined ahead of the ECB rate decision, where the central bank are widely expected to announce the intricacies of QE, or, taking a page out of the OMT playbook, Draghi may simply reveal in broad strokes what ECB's QE will look like and withhold all details: after all it is not as if the ECB is not engaging in illegal state financing - why stop breaking the laws here? Bunds (-34 ticks) have seen a continuation of yesterday’s losses amid uncertainty on the size and scope of the QE program and the German curve is steeper in early trade; this comes as positions are squared ahead of the ECB meeting today at 1245GMT/1330CST and press conference at 1330GMT/0730CST. Furthermore, some analysts and traders are looking for a EUR >1trln QE program given the ECB sources yesterday suggesting that QE could begin in March through 2016 at EUR 50bln per month. However, the uncertainty in the market stems from the fact that the program could also be left open ended.

In FX, the USD-index (-0.02%) reversed the bid tone that was seen overnight, where the underperformers were AUD/USD and NZD/USD as they have retraced moves to the downside in today’s session. This overnight move lower was inspired by yesterday’s BoC surprise rate cut of 25bps which put the pair under selling pressure. However, in the European session AUD/USD trades back above the 1.1800 level. In other pairs, USD/JPY has been dragged lower by the weaker USD with movements in the FX markets particularly muted ahead of the of the ECB meeting.

Gold (-0.40%) prices remained below USD 1,300/oz after reaching 5 month highs yesterday ahead of the prospect of ECB QE. Elsewhere, WTI (USD +0.43) and Brent (USD +0.11) crude futures marginally higher despite the API’s showing a build of 5.7mln as the USD continues to weaken heading into the North American crossover. Looking ahead, sees the delayed release of the US DoE Crude Inventories scheduled today at 1600GMT/1000CST with analysts expecting a build of 2.7mlnbpd.

In summary: European shares mixed, off intraday highs, with the health care and food & beverage sectors underperforming and basic resources, oil & gas outperforming. ECB rate decision expected at 1:45pm CET (7:45am Eastern) with Draghi press conference outlining likely QE due 45 minutes later at 2:30pm. U.K. deficit widens more than forecast on EU contribution. The Swiss and German markets are the worst- performing larger bourses, the Italian the best. The euro is stronger against the dollar. Japanese 10yr bond yields rise; German yields increase. Commodities gain, with natural gas, nickel underperforming and Brent crude outperforming. U.S.
jobless claims, FHFA house price index, Kansas City Fed index due later.

Market Wrap

S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2029
Stoxx 600 down 0% to 358
US 10Yr yield up 4bps to 1.91%
German 10Yr yield up 3bps to 0.56%
MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.1% to 139.8
Gold spot down 0.5% to $1286.3/oz
AVIC Said to Pursue Acquisition of U.S. Car-Parts Maker Henniges
Shenzhen Government Said Seeking Investors for Kaisa Stakes
Mitsubishi UFJ Said to Have Held Talks to Buy DZ Bank’s DVB
Euro up 0.1% to $1.1622
Dollar Index down 0.28% to 92.65
Italian 10Yr yield up 1bps to 1.7%
Spanish 10Yr yield up 1bps to 1.54%
French 10Yr yield up 3bps to 0.73%
S&P GSCI Index up 0.3% to 387.4
Brent Futures up 0.9% to $49.5/bbl, WTI Futures up 0.3% to $47.9/bbl
LME 3m Copper down 1.2% to $5700/MT
LME 3m Nickel down 1.3% to $14825/MT
Wheat futures up 0.5% to 539.5 USd/bu
Bulletin Headline Symmary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

Markets participants remain on the side-lines ahead of the ECB rate decision at 1245GMT/0645CST and press conference at 1330GMT/0730CST, expected to officially announce their sovereign bond buying programme.
Looking ahead, sees the ECB rate decision & press conference, US Initial Jobless Claims, DoE Crude Inventories, and earnings from Verizon.
Treasuries fall led by long end before ECB rate decision at 7:45am New York time, Draghi press conference at 8:30am; core EGB yields also rise as ECB president will probably commit to a QE program that may exceed EU1 trillion.
Treasuries may continue falling as “‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ becomes a reality” after ECB, ED&F Man head of rates and credit Tom Di Galoma writes in note; “The mere liquidation of Euro-govies should put downward pressure on core fixed income markets and enable US 10yr yields back to 2% at a minimum”
ECB will have to win a battle for bonds to meet its balance- sheet target by buying sovereign debt as banks and pension funds are already competing with investors for a dwindling supply of German bunds
ECB has approved an emergency funding line for Greek banks for 2 wks to be provided via the country’s central bank, Reuters reported, citing a person in banking familiar with the matter
Starting with elections this Sunday in Greece and heading west to Ireland via Britain and Spain, polls show Europeans will vent their anger over issues from widening income disparities and record unemployment to unprecedented immigration
Europe and Japan need to weaken their currencies further to help revive growth in their domestic economies, according to Ray Dalio, the U.S. hedge fund manager who runs the $160b Bridgewater Associates
China’s commerce Ministry this week put forward a draft that could unify regulations overseeing foreign investment in China, scale back restrictions and begin regulating the variable interest entities that are commonly used to circumvent foreign-ownership limits
The Shenzhen government is holding talks with several property developers in a bid to orchestrate investments in Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., people familiar with the matter said today
83% of respondents to a Bloomberg Global Poll say the banking industry will continue cutting jobs this year; 61% say reductions will affect firms around the world, while 21% said most cuts will be in Europe and 1% said they’d be concentrated in the U.S.
Sovereign yields mostly higher. Asian stocks gain; European stocks mostly higher, U.S. equity-index futures rise. WTI and Brent steady; copper and gold fall
US Event Calendar

8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Jan. 17, est. 300k (prior 316k)
Continuing Claims, Jan. 10, est. 2.4m (prior 2.424m)
9:00am: FHFA House Price Index m/m, Nov., est. 0.3% (prior 0.6%)
9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Jan. 18 (prior 45.4)
11:00am: Kansas City Fed Manufac. Activity, Jan., est. 8 (prior 8)
* * *

DB's Jim Ried concludes the overnight summary

As we start a monumental day ahead with the ECB almost certain to announce QE - even if they are not yet fully ready to implement it - I can't help wondering what the date will be that we will be able to report that the ECB is out of the money printing game. Once they start it might be incredibly difficult to stop without a political accident on the negative side or a sustainable exogenous positive growth shock. If there is no political accident, will they still be buying bonds into the 2020s? Will they have bought other assets by then or will we have printed money to give directly to citizens before the next decade starts? When QE first started post crisis we felt money printing would be around for years and years. Several years later and we still can't see an end in sight even if the Fed is currently pausing and the SNB has shown that there is an alternative direction for some. So today likely starts a new chapter, even a new section of a book that is nowhere near finished.

The fact that the FT, WSJ and Bloomberg all carried similar stories yesterday suggesting that the ECB are considering buying 50bn Euros a month over one to two years gave markets hope that there could be a positive surprise relative to numbers discussed in similar leaks over the last couple of weeks. If accurate this would put potential expansion at over a trillion, although we have to net off repayments. 10 days ago markets were starting to get concerned that there might be only consensus for a €500bn scheme. However before we get too excited this seems to be one of the proposals being considered by the council. It could be that they are also considering a smaller package.

If we do get a plan that makes the trillion euro expansion eminently reachable it will likely further support our 2015 view that European equities and credit will out-perform absolutely and also relative to the US where there is no QE at the moment. The equity trade could last all year but European credit is getting more and more expensive relative to US credit so at some point in 2015 (maybe when Oil stabilises and the Fed become more dovish) the US will likely out-perform on a carry basis alone. So timing is key here but we don't think its yet.

Yesterday our European economics team published a note briefly summarising their views on what will happen today along with their thoughts on what current market consensus is. The note came out before the aforementioned press articles hit the wires but they make some interesting points about the design. They are concerned that the complexity of QE design means there is a chance of delay and their baseline expectation is that the ECB sends a clear signal of imminent QE today – by announcing for example that there is ‚broad consensus? for it – but that the actual vote awaits the final design input from staff in March. The team go into details in terms of the type of plan they expect in the note. They do highlight that the main risk to their view is that a formal decision for QE is taken today. For us it seems inevitable that an announcement will be made today even if we don't get full details until March. So stand by for a big day.

In terms of market reaction yesterday, European equities closed firmer although the moves were perhaps more muted than we’d have expected given the news, perhaps reflecting that there could be other proposals being voted on outside the one the press all picked up on. Indeed, the Stoxx 600 and Dax finished +0.61% and +0.41% respectively for their fifth consecutive day of gains although admittedly the former did bounce some +1.4% off its intraday lows after the ECB leaks hit the wires. Credit markets were also supported, Crossover closing around 9bps tighter on the day. The Euro swung around over the day, reaching an intraday high of 1.168 versus the Dollar before settling at 1.155, still +0.6% firmer on the day. Before all this, sentiment was somewhat weaker in markets. The Stoxx at one point hit an intraday low of -0.8% after the ECB’s Nowotny urged investors not to focus too much on the ECB outcome. Specifically, Nowotny was reported on Reuters saying that ‘central bankers, banks and policy-makers should always have more of a relaxed attitude to news and not get too excited of news of one day’ before going on to say that ‘my plea is to look at the long term and not get carried away’. Government bond yields across Europe sold off through the session. 10yr yields in Germany (+7.5bps) and France (+5.7bps) closed higher and yields in the periphery finished up 1-2bps.

On the other side of the pond, the S&P 500 finished +0.47% at the close, recovering somewhat with the rebound in oil markets. Both WTI (+1.31%) and Brent (+2.17%) pared back some of the previous day’s losses to close at $47.78/bbl and $49.03./bbl respectively – both markets appear to have found something a $2 range for the time being with prices generally unchanged versus the start of last week. Energy stocks (+1.83%) led the recovery although in reality it was a better day for all sectors. Economic data largely took a backseat. A better than expected housing starts print (+4.4% mom vs. +1.2% expected) was offset by softer building permits (-1.9% mom vs. +0.8% expected).

Treasuries had a notably weak day yesterday as the flight-to-quality play somewhat unwound on the back of the firmer risk tone elsewhere. The 10y benchmark yield closed about 8bps higher at 1.872%. In reality it has been a somewhat volatile year but strong year for Treasuries so far with the 10yr reaching an intraday high of 2.21% on the first trading day of 2015 versus an intraday low of 1.69% last Friday.

Speaking of the rates rally one of the key outperformers yesterday was Canada. Indeed, the 25bps cut by the BoC to 0.75% (its first move in four years) caught the market by surprise which drove the 10yr Canadian government bond yields 5.4bps lower to an all-time low of 1.433%. Canadian equities also closed some 1.8% firmer on the back of the dovish stance. The BoC pointed towards the downside risks to inflation and financial stability as a result of the oil price shocks whilst the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers yesterday also noted that capex in Western Canada could drop by as much as a third this year. What's more interesting for us though is the BoC move comes shortly after the recent surprise moves by the SNB, Danish and Indian Central Bank. These easing biases have also placed other DM central banks (eg RBA) somewhat under the spotlight. More importantly can the Fed still look to raise rates in a world where several central banks have already eased in 2015?

Indeed staying on this theme it was interesting to see that the minutes out of the Bank of England yesterday showed that two of the recent hawks who had previously called for the BoE to raise rates, switched their view to keeping rates unchanged. Yesterday’s data in the UK was largely mixed. Unemployment ticked down a notch to 5.8% (from 6%) however wage growth disappointed with underlying wages falling 0.2% mom. As a result of the mixed data and change of view from two recent hawks, DB’s George Buckley noted that he sees the BoE pushing the first rate hike out to May next year. George doesn’t expect the Bank to look through the weak (and what should continue to be) headline inflation.

Refreshing our screens this morning Asian equities are mostly trading on a firmer tone helped by the positive US lead yesterday. Bourses in Hong Kong and Australia are up +0.69% and +0.49% respectively whilst Korea is flat, as we go to print. The CSI 300 (+0.16%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.08%) have pared back initial losses after reassurances from Premier Li about the growth slowdown at Davos. The Premier said that China will still face large downward pressures in 2015 but won't have systemic financial risks and will seek to improve the quality of growth. The liquidity situation is also a little bit better on shore with the PBOC conducting reverse repo for the first time this year (RMB50bn via 7-day repo overnight). Similarly Asian credit markets are also trading on a stronger footing overnight with IG spreads generically 2-3bps tighter. New issues are also breaking inside re-offer after a hiatus of a couple days although they are still dominated by IG issuers so far. On the FX front the EUR is trading near its 11-year low overnight (1.159) ahead of the ECB meeting later today.

In terms of the day ahead data watchers can expect Italian industrial orders and retail sales, Spanish unemployment as well as public finance data from the UK. US jobless claims today will cover the period for January’s nonfarm payrolls. We also have the FHFA house price index and Kansas City Fed manufacturing index in the US today but all these will be secondary as all eyes will on ECB and Draghi today.

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As expected by most analysts, the ECB kept its rates unchanged for all three facilities. From the press release:

ECB Monetary Policy Decisions

At today's meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.05%, 0.30% and -0.20% respectively.

Further monetary policy measures will be communicated by the President of the E at a press conference starting at 2.30 p.m. CET today.
This is hardly surprising, although as HSBC accurately observed, if the ECB really wants to incentivize banks to sell their government bond holdings, it should have actually pushed rates higher.

In any event, as the ECB also noted, "Further monetary policy measures will be communicated by the President of the E at a press conference starting at 2.30 p.m. CET today." which is a key signal that a much bigger announcement is coming.

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On the surface, everything getting cheaper sounds like a dream come true. It’s not. The prospect is so terrifying that it’s prompted central bankers around the industrialized world to pour trillions of dollars into their economies to prevent a sustained drop in prices. The European Central Bank is projected to follow suit with an announcement as soon as Thursday.

Here’s why.

1. When shoppers see persistent price declines, they hold out on buying things. They ask, will I get a better deal next week, next month, next year? As a result, consumer spending flails. For most nations, that’s a big chunk of their economy, and any slowdown in consumption threatens growth.

2. Businesses behave pretty much the same way. They postpone buying raw materials, hoping to get a break on costs, and delay investing in that splashy new facility or hiring an extra hand.

3. Additionally, their pricing power -- the ability to charge more -- vanishes. That makes it harder for them to grow profits.

In such an environment, if companies want to grab a bigger market share, they have to slash prices. That makes things worse.

4. Lower profits = less money to go around to workers. Employees don’t get the raises they were expecting, they cut back on spending even more, and the ugly cycle repeats. That’s why they call it a deflationary spiral.


Photographer: Manuel Gutjahr/Getty Images
5. The sad thing is, even when prices are falling, the amount you owe doesn’t. Borrowers get crushed under the weight of that debt. In a mild scenario, companies and consumers hold back on other purchases to continue meeting their obligations. When things get really bad, they go bust altogether.

6. Policy makers usually have an antidote to economic slowdowns, but it’s trickier when interest rates are already near zero. That’s exactly the situation with the ECB and much of the industrialized world. That forces officials to turn to unconventional tools.

Policy makers have been raising and lowering interest rates for a long time but quantitative easing -- a Japanese invention from the 2000s -- is a relatively untested tool. Its effectiveness is still controversial among many economic circles.

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The European Central Bank is weighing a proposal to inject as much as 1.1 trillion euros into the euro zone's economy to stave off deflation, a dangerous downward spiral in prices. Under such a "quantitative easing" program, the ECB would buy the bonds of governments that use the euro.

What is this and what would it accomplish?

The first thing you need to know is that the euro zone economy is very, very weak. According to the statistics agency Eurostat, the unemployment rate is 11.5%. Growth in the euro zone is less than 1%. And recently the area has been experiencing deflation, a dangerous decline in prices that prompts people to delay making purchases and investments and drives down economic activity.

Why is the euro zone economy so bad?

Lots of reasons. The euro zone is a badly constructed amalgamation of countries with disparate economies that probably shouldn't have the same currency in the first place. Does it make sense for Germany to be using the same currency as Cyprus, and to have the same central bank? Not really. (Of course, there are many disparate state economies in the US; the differences is that the US also has fiscal unification that enables transfers from rich states to poor states.) Furthermore, policy hasn't been conducive to growth since the global economic crisis of 2008-2009. Governments have been told to cut their debts, preventing them from boosting their economies with higher spending.

What can Draghi do about it?

Well, one of the tools that the United States used to get out of its own slump in 2009 was this quantitative easing: The Federal Reserve bought hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. government bonds. The Fed could do this because it essentially controls the printing press and can create money at will. The idea behind the plan is that when the Fed goes out into the market and buys debt, it's pumping money into the system, which then might get used to buy loans, fund businesses, and boost asset prices. In the U.S., QE has worked OK. The recovery has been better than most, though still disappointingly slow by most people's standards.

The ECB is looking to do the same thing. The hope is that if it buys government bonds from the private sector, then the private sector will use that money to take risks (buy assets, make loans, etc.) and that that will boost the economy.

So it's that simple?

Well, no, nothing is that simple. There are all kinds of potential problems and complications. For one thing, the Germans -- who have lots of influence at the ECB and who have the strongest economy in the euro zone -- hate the idea. German policymakers despise the notion of central banks printing money, and they think governments should stay focused on debt reduction, and not have a central bank to slurp up their debt.

It's also tricky that in the euro zone, unlike in the U.S., you have many different governments issuing debt. The ultimate plan may not involve the ECB directly buying government bonds, but in having the national central bank of each country buy up the debt -- each country in the euro zone still has its own central bank.

And it's possible that the plan just doesn't work as planned. In theory, the money that the ECB pumps into the system will work its way into the real economy. In practice, it might not. Maybe people will just sit on their cash. Or maybe they'll use their cash to invest in Germany. Or they'll use it to buy U.S. government debt, which currently pays a greater yield than euro zone debt. Nobody seems all that optimistic that the plan will give the economy a huge boost.

Bottom line:

The euro zone has all kinds of structural flaws that are preventing robust growth -- the shared currency is one, as is the ongoing drive to reduce spending. With any luck, though, a more aggressive and expansive ECB can pump money into the system and help turn the ship around.

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They speak different languages, they come from different backgrounds, yet all have the same message of frustration that’s threatening to redraw the European political map over the next year.

Starting with elections this Sunday in Greece and heading west to Ireland via Britain and Spain, polls show Europeans will vent their anger over issues from widening income disparities and record unemployment to unprecedented immigration.

For Athens pensioner Irini Smyrni, the moment she’d had enough was when her younger daughter lost her job with the government last year. For Dublin florist Nicola Johns, it was when her business fell behind on rent.

“We pay, we pay, we pay,” said Smyrni, 73. “Our homeland unfortunately is taking us backwards -- paltry wages, miserable pensions -- and we’re looking for something better.”

English electrical technician David Liddle wants someone to stick up for people like him rather than immigrants and “scroungers.” Virginia Sanchez, an unpaid university researcher in Madrid, said she just grew tired of being failed by the usual politicians unable to improve her prospects.

“I keep going because there’s nothing else to do,” said Sanchez, 23, who graduated in biology last year.

Lost Citizens

Disaffection with what is seen as a ruling elite and a sense of being left behind in an increasingly globalized world are complaints heard across Europe on varying points of the political spectrum as the continent struggles to recover from successive waves of financial and economic crises.

“Political elites have lost track of their citizens, who feel insecure amid all the economic and social pressures,” said Daniela Schwarzer, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Europe program in Berlin. “There’s a growing questioning of the political establishment across Europe.”

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi today is expected to announce the latest efforts by his monetary policy makers to foster economic growth in the euro region by injecting money into the financial system. It’s unlikely to make enough of a difference to deter people from protesting at the ballot box.

The result is that people are abandoning parties used to being in government, those deemed safe to lead by creditors, investors and European bureaucrats.

“If the moderates of Europe do not get together and change things in a meaningful way, I believe there is a risk that the political extremists will be the biggest threat to the euro,” Ray Dalio, founder and majority owner of the $160-billion hedge fund manager Bridgewater Associates, said in a panel debate Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

This weekend, Smyrni will vote for Syriza, which has pledged to halt the spending cuts that were tied to Greece’s financial rescue. The party looks like it could unseat the government after narrowly losing in 2012. Liddle has switched allegiance to the anti-immigration U.K. Independence Party before an election on May 7.

Disintegrating Europe

Sanchez says Podemos in Spain is giving her hope as the party, founded only last year, tops opinion polls before a vote by the end of this year. Sinn Fein is doing the same for Johns. Irish elections are due by April next year at the latest.

“The underlying current of voter migration starts in Greece and is reflected elsewhere,” said Jens Bastian, an economist and former member of the European Commission’s Greek task force. “If you look at what may happen in Britain or Spain, and you still have a Syriza government in power by then, you’re looking at a completely different Europe.”

In the extreme, it’s a period that could lay the foundations for Greece leaving the euro and the U.K. ditching the European Union, unraveling decades of integration since World War II. At the least, it’s likely to send shockwaves through parliaments and financial institutions.

The euro has declined more than 14 percent against the dollar in the past year. In other currency markets, traders expect the pound to react to political wrangling after the U.K. election, with implied price volatility against the dollar for the next six months climbing to the highest since June 2012.

Strong Stomach

Borrowing costs for Greece, which triggered the continent’s debt crisis, already are rising again. The yield on 10-year government bonds jumped above 10 percent this month for the first time since September 2013.

“European political risk makes the investing environment only for those who have the intestinal fortitude to take a long-term view,” said Scott MacDonald, head of research at MC Asset Management Holdings LLC, an investment company in Stamford, Connecticut, with $400 million of assets. “Europeans confront a world that has been turned on its head, starting in 2008 and likely to continue for another few years.”

With three days to go until voting in Greece, Syriza is topping opinion polls, ahead of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s New Democracy. Socialist party Pasok barely scrapes 4 percent a little over five years since winning elections.

Only Choice

After voting New Democracy, Smyrni switched to Pasok when the party’s spending on state workers provided her family with a living. She said she has only one choice left.

Syriza will “make a change and maybe go toward something better,” said Smyrni.

The Greek economy has shrunk by a quarter, or about 50 billion euros ($58 billion), during a six-year recession that only ended in 2014. Joblessness still exceeds 25 percent, higher for women. A survey of 1,000 Greek households by the country’s largest association for small businesses found that 47 percent said their income didn’t cover their needs.

Smyrni and her husband rely on his pension of 650 euros a month. Their younger daughter is struggling as a single mother with two children after being dismissed from her job at the Culture Ministry, part of the reductions ordered by international creditors in return for rescue money.

Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras, who at 40 is the same age as Smyrni’s daughter, said the election will pave the way for policy changes across Europe and be followed by victories for Podemos in Spain and then Sinn Fein in Ireland.

Financial Torture

He said this month Greece can’t repay its debt as long as its creditors enforce “fiscal waterboarding” and signaled he will boost government spending.

A European Union survey published in December showed that unemployment remained the most important national concern of EU citizens, with the stagnating economy coming second. The feeling that the worst was still to come for the job market was the majority view in a dozen countries.

Spain has the highest jobless rate in Europe after Greece, leaving multilingual graduates on a fruitless quest for work. At about 24 percent, it’s four times the U.K.’s. and almost double that of neighboring Portugal, where an election is also due this year, though without the same backlash.

Sanchez, the researcher in Madrid, will vote for Podemos, founded by a pony-tailed university lecturer, Pablo Iglesias. Like many Spaniards her age, she lives at home and is supported by her family. She plans to leave to study abroad when the next academic year begins.

Spanish Order

“It’s very depressing to have studied for four years for a degree, to have paid for it, and to find there’s no possibility of finding a job,” she said over coffee with her friend Maria Villar at a Madrid café this month. “Something’s not working.”

The emergence of Podemos upended the political order in Spain, while the People’s Party led by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and the opposition Socialists scramble to respond. One or other of the two parties has governed for the past 32 years.

Villar left Spain in 2013 as youth unemployment exceeded 50 percent, to study in the U.S. Both were part of the group of demonstrators who took over Madrid’s central square, the Puerta del Sol, in 2010, to protest austerity and they see Podemos as a more structured version of that movement.

“If Podemos wins, I’ll come back,” said Villar, who also is 23 like her friend. “It would be like when Obama was elected in the U.S., maybe reality won’t change that much, but the very fact that it’s that guy in charge would be so important.”

English Beer

Like many Greeks or Irish, educated and skilled Spaniards have been leaving their country while poorer migrants often from former Communist countries have been settling.

That phenomenon is felt particularly acutely in the U.K., where the traditional dominance of the Conservatives and Labour Party has been disrupted by the emergence of the U.K. Independence Party, or UKIP, which opposes membership of the EU. UKIP’s gains, along with increasing support for the Greens and Scottish nationalists, mean the U.K. election in May is likely to produce the most fragmented parliament since the 1970s.

Liddle, 57, voted for the Conservatives, led by Prime Minister David Cameron, at every election: until now.

While Cameron has promised a referendum on EU membership if he wins, Liddle is more attracted by UKIP’s message. He says leader Nigel Farage, a privately educated former metals trader who styles himself as a beer-drinking man of the people, is “more my kind of person.”

Polish Competition

A former soldier who did four tours or Northern Ireland during the conflict there, Liddle has two sons. The elder, 30, works in retail in Germany. His 27-year-old makes his money in London erecting scaffolds for building work and has had to fend off competition from Polish migrants, he said.

“All the other parties are out of touch with the people,” Liddle said over tea in the pub where his wife works in Chatham, a town in southern England where UKIP is the most popular party. “I’d like to see change across the board, to see more being done for our sort of people. I’m a middle earner and we seem to take the brunt of it all the time.”

Since the good times came to an abrupt end in 2008, the U.K., Greece, Spain and Ireland either had to bail out their banks, request a bailout by the International Monetary Fund, EU and ECB, or a combination of both. They implemented about $400 billion of combined austerity measures.

Broken Promises

In Ireland, most polls show Sinn Fein is jostling for the lead as it takes on the two established parties that traded power since independence 93 years ago. The former political wing of the Irish Republican Army, re-branded itself as the most prominent opponent of cuts and tax increases. It’s led by Gerry Adams, a Northern Irish politician once synonymous with the conflict in Belfast.

Johns, 39, who manages Round Tower Flowers in Clondalkin, a west Dublin suburb, voted for the Labour Party, part of Ireland’s governing coalition, in 2011 and now backs Sinn Fein. She and her husband, who have three children, used to own their own store before getting into rental arrears.

“The majority of them have had broken promises,” said Johns, wrapping an orange bow around chrysanthemums, roses and lilies. “There’s disillusionment, big time. It’s very tough.”

People Weary

It all sets up what could be the biggest overhaul of the political order in Europe for a generation, and rather than a clash of ideologies, it’s the establishment being taken down by a disparate group of malcontents.

“People’s legitimate expectations have been dashed,” said Alan Ahearne, a former economist at the Federal Reserve who advised the Irish Finance Ministry between 2009 and 2011. “People can tolerate that for a short period, but they need to be able to see the recovery coming, and they can’t. And when they can’t see a recovery, they’ll turn to alternatives.”

Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan sees a public that’s been worn down by more than seven years of crisis and is no longer willing to follow the incumbent political class.

“People get weary. People get tired,” he said at a conference in Dublin this week. “There’s only one life to live and if a decade is taken out of it because of bad economic management, well then it’s no wonder that people lose heart and their governments lose support.”

Een historische dag voor de Europese Centrale Bank. Vanmiddag maakt bankpresident Mario Draghi bekend of de ECB de Europese economie gaat stimuleren door het opkopen van staatsobligaties. Het zou voor het eerst zijn dat de centrale bank overgaat tot het systematisch en in zulke hoeveelheden opkopen van staatsleningen.

Het opkoopprogramma, genaamd QE (Quantitative Easing), houdt in dat de ECB euro's in de eurozone pompt door staatsleningen op te kopen van banken of financiële instellingen. Geruchten over de omvang gaan van 500 tot 1200 miljard euro.

Volgens de Financial Times zou de 25-koppige raad van bestuur van de ECB gisteravond gediscussieerd hebben over een plan om per maand ruwweg voor 50 miljard euro op te kopen gedurende 1 tot 2 jaar.

In ruil voor dat schuldpapier krijgen banken geld om op hun beurt weer meer leningen te verstrekken. Dat moet de economie een boost geven en de inflatie laten stijgen naar het normale en gewenste niveau van richting de twee procent. Ook zal door de toename van euro's de euro goedkoper worden ten opzichte van andere valuta, wat goed is voor de export.

Hoe werkt 'kwantitatieve verruiming?
Video afspelen 00:45
Voor- en tegenstanders

Vooral Zuid-Europese landen juichen de maatregel toe. Landen met bovengemiddelde staatsschulden, zoals Griekenland, Spanje en Italië, kunnen met meer geld en een lagere rente schulden blijven aflossen ondanks economische krimp.

Eurolanden die er beter voor staan en minder staatsschulden hebben, zijn niet blij met het plan van Draghi. Zij zijn bang dat zij de risico's moeten dragen voor de zwakkere eurolanden. Menig politicus uit Duitsland en Nederland vindt dat het overnemen van overheidsschulden geen taak is voor de ECB.

Minister Dijsselbloem van Financiën benadrukt dat de ECB onafhankelijk is en dat zij dit besluit zonder bemoeienis van politici mag nemen.

---------- Toegevoegd om 13:47 ---------- De post hierboven werd geplaatst om 13:46 ----------

De Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) houdt zijn belangrijkste rentetarief in de eurozone op 0,05 procent.
Dat meldt de ECB donderdag.

Niet alleen de rente waartegen banken kunnen lenen is ongewijzigd, ook de depositorente en de rente voor kortlopende leningen blijven gelijk op respectievelijk -0,20 en 0,3 procent.

Om 14.30 uur licht ECB-voorzitter Mario Draghi het rentebesluit toe. Verwacht wordt dat hij zal aankondigen dat de ECB staatsobligaties gaat opkopen om de economie te stimuleren en de lage inflatie te lijf te gaan.

---------- Toegevoegd om 13:47 ---------- De post hierboven werd geplaatst om 13:47 ----------

De Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) overweegt tot eind volgend jaar maandelijks voor ongeveer 50 miljard euro in de economie van de eurolanden te pompen.
Dat meldt persbureau Bloomberg woensdag, op basis van twee centrale bankiers die een voorstel met die strekking hebben ingezien.

De nieuwe steunmaatregel zou hoofdzakelijk bestaan uit de aankoop van staatsobligaties, waar op zijn vroegst in maart mee zou worden begonnen. Op die manier zou zo'n 1.100 miljard euro in de economie worden geïnjecteerd. De ECB wilde niet reageren op het bericht.

Het voorstel komt van het zeskoppige bestuur van de ECB, dat onder leiding staat van president Mario Draghi. Zij leggen het voor aan de rest van het beleidsbepalende comité, dat behalve uit deze bestuurders bestaat uit de centralebankpresidenten van de eurolanden.

Dit comité neemt donderdag het besluit, dat er volgens de ingewijden nog behoorlijk anders uit kan komen te zien.

Geld

Met de aankopen van staatsleningen bij banken wil de ECB ervoor zorgen dat er meer geld beschikbaar komt in de eurolanden. Banken krijgen door de verkoop van de obligaties meer geld in kas.

Als zij dit geld uitlenen aan bedrijven en consumenten kunnen die hun bestedingen en investeringen opvoeren, waardoor de economische groei een duw in de rug kan krijgen.

Inflatie

Op die manier zou ook de inflatie, de mate waarin prijzen stijgen, weer kunnen toenemen. De bijzonder lage inflatie in de eurozone heeft de vrees aangewakkerd voor deflatie. Dat is een periode van aanhoudende prijsdalingen die een rem kunnen zetten op de economie.

Die rem kan ontstaan als de lagere prijzen doorwerken in stagnerende of dalende lonen van werknemers. Dat brengt vooral mensen met schulden in de problemen omdat hun verplichtingen niet kleiner worden.

Bedrijven

Verder is het bij dalende prijzen minder aantrekkelijk voor bedrijven om te investeren en zou deflatie ervoor kunnen zorgen dat consumenten bestedingen uitstellen, in afwachting van nog lagere prijzen.

Om al deze negatieve zaken te voorkomen mikt de ECB altijd op een inflatie van bijna 2 procent. In december zakte de inflatie echter naar min 0,2 procent. Dat betekent dat goederen en diensten gemiddeld 0,2 procent goedkoper werden.

---------- Toegevoegd om 13:48 ---------- De post hierboven werd geplaatst om 13:47 ----------

Lagarde: renteverhoging Fed medio dit jaar
DAVOS (AFN) -
Het Amerikaanse stelsel van centrale banken, de Federal Reserve, verhoogt waarschijnlijk medio dit jaar de rente. Dat voorspelde Christine Lagarde, de directeur van het Internationaal Monetair Fonds (IMF), donderdag op het World Economic Forum in het Zwitserse Davos.
,,Onze verwachting is dat de renteverhoging eerder medio dit jaar plaatsvindt dan aan het einde van het jaar. Het feit dat de Fed de rente gaat verhogen is op zichzelf goed nieuws. Het geeft aan dat de zaken in de juiste richting gaan'', aldus Lagarde.
De meeste economen verwachten eveneens dat de Fed ergens medio dit jaar de rente zal verhogen. Die staat al sinds eind 2008 op het historisch lage niveau van 0 tot 0,25 procent.

---------- Toegevoegd om 13:49 ---------- De post hierboven werd geplaatst om 13:48 ----------

With less than two hours until the ECB unveils its first official quantitative easing program, the markets appear to be in a unchanged daze. Well, not all markets: the Japanese bond market overnight suffered its worst sell off in months on a jump in volume, although for context this means the 10Year dropping from 0.25% to 0.32%. Whether this is a hint of the "sell the news" that may follow Draghi's announcement is unclear, although Europe has seen comparable weakness across its bond space as well and the US 10 Year has sold off all the way to 1.91%, which is impressive considering it was trading under 1.80% just a few days ago. Stocks for now are largely unchanged with futures barely budging and tracking the USDJPY which after rising above 118 again overnight, has seen active selling ever since the close of the Japanese session.

Looking at the main event, today's start of debt monetization by the ECB in contravention to Article 123 (in Draghi's own words), here is a concise summary from Deustche Bank's Jim Reid:

As we start a monumental day ahead with the ECB almost certain to announce QE - even if they are not yet fully ready to implement it - I can't help wondering what the date will be that we will be able to report that the ECB is out of the money printing game. Once they start it might be incredibly difficult to stop without a political accident on the negative side or a sustainable exogenous positive growth shock. If there is no political accident, will they still be buying bonds into the 2020s? Will they have bought other assets by then or will we have printed money to give directly to citizens before the next decade starts? When QE first started post crisis we felt money printing would be around for years and years. Several years later and we still can't see an end in sight even if the Fed is currently pausing and the SNB has shown that there is an alternative direction for some. So today likely starts a new chapter, even a new section of a book that is nowhere near finished.
A closer look at Asia's bourses shows the Nikkei 225 (+0.28%) remained relatively flat throughout the session amid light news flow and a light economic calendar. Elsewhere, both the Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.6%) after the PBoC rolled-over CNY 269.5bln of lending facilities yesterday and today pumped CNY 50bln into money markets via 7-day reverse repos, with an aim to address Lunar New Year, IPO and Tax payment demands.

Looking at ground zero of today's action, European equities (Eurostoxx50 -0.18%) trade mixed with market participants side-lined ahead of the ECB rate decision, where the central bank are widely expected to announce the intricacies of QE, or, taking a page out of the OMT playbook, Draghi may simply reveal in broad strokes what ECB's QE will look like and withhold all details: after all it is not as if the ECB is not engaging in illegal state financing - why stop breaking the laws here? Bunds (-34 ticks) have seen a continuation of yesterday’s losses amid uncertainty on the size and scope of the QE program and the German curve is steeper in early trade; this comes as positions are squared ahead of the ECB meeting today at 1245GMT/1330CST and press conference at 1330GMT/0730CST. Furthermore, some analysts and traders are looking for a EUR >1trln QE program given the ECB sources yesterday suggesting that QE could begin in March through 2016 at EUR 50bln per month. However, the uncertainty in the market stems from the fact that the program could also be left open ended.

In FX, the USD-index (-0.02%) reversed the bid tone that was seen overnight, where the underperformers were AUD/USD and NZD/USD as they have retraced moves to the downside in today’s session. This overnight move lower was inspired by yesterday’s BoC surprise rate cut of 25bps which put the pair under selling pressure. However, in the European session AUD/USD trades back above the 1.1800 level. In other pairs, USD/JPY has been dragged lower by the weaker USD with movements in the FX markets particularly muted ahead of the of the ECB meeting.

Gold (-0.40%) prices remained below USD 1,300/oz after reaching 5 month highs yesterday ahead of the prospect of ECB QE. Elsewhere, WTI (USD +0.43) and Brent (USD +0.11) crude futures marginally higher despite the API’s showing a build of 5.7mln as the USD continues to weaken heading into the North American crossover. Looking ahead, sees the delayed release of the US DoE Crude Inventories scheduled today at 1600GMT/1000CST with analysts expecting a build of 2.7mlnbpd.

In summary: European shares mixed, off intraday highs, with the health care and food & beverage sectors underperforming and basic resources, oil & gas outperforming. ECB rate decision expected at 1:45pm CET (7:45am Eastern) with Draghi press conference outlining likely QE due 45 minutes later at 2:30pm. U.K. deficit widens more than forecast on EU contribution. The Swiss and German markets are the worst- performing larger bourses, the Italian the best. The euro is stronger against the dollar. Japanese 10yr bond yields rise; German yields increase. Commodities gain, with natural gas, nickel underperforming and Brent crude outperforming. U.S.
jobless claims, FHFA house price index, Kansas City Fed index due later.

Market Wrap

S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2029
Stoxx 600 down 0% to 358
US 10Yr yield up 4bps to 1.91%
German 10Yr yield up 3bps to 0.56%
MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.1% to 139.8
Gold spot down 0.5% to $1286.3/oz
AVIC Said to Pursue Acquisition of U.S. Car-Parts Maker Henniges
Shenzhen Government Said Seeking Investors for Kaisa Stakes
Mitsubishi UFJ Said to Have Held Talks to Buy DZ Bank’s DVB
Euro up 0.1% to $1.1622
Dollar Index down 0.28% to 92.65
Italian 10Yr yield up 1bps to 1.7%
Spanish 10Yr yield up 1bps to 1.54%
French 10Yr yield up 3bps to 0.73%
S&P GSCI Index up 0.3% to 387.4
Brent Futures up 0.9% to $49.5/bbl, WTI Futures up 0.3% to $47.9/bbl
LME 3m Copper down 1.2% to $5700/MT
LME 3m Nickel down 1.3% to $14825/MT
Wheat futures up 0.5% to 539.5 USd/bu
Bulletin Headline Symmary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

Markets participants remain on the side-lines ahead of the ECB rate decision at 1245GMT/0645CST and press conference at 1330GMT/0730CST, expected to officially announce their sovereign bond buying programme.
Looking ahead, sees the ECB rate decision & press conference, US Initial Jobless Claims, DoE Crude Inventories, and earnings from Verizon.
Treasuries fall led by long end before ECB rate decision at 7:45am New York time, Draghi press conference at 8:30am; core EGB yields also rise as ECB president will probably commit to a QE program that may exceed EU1 trillion.
Treasuries may continue falling as “‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ becomes a reality” after ECB, ED&F Man head of rates and credit Tom Di Galoma writes in note; “The mere liquidation of Euro-govies should put downward pressure on core fixed income markets and enable US 10yr yields back to 2% at a minimum”
ECB will have to win a battle for bonds to meet its balance- sheet target by buying sovereign debt as banks and pension funds are already competing with investors for a dwindling supply of German bunds
ECB has approved an emergency funding line for Greek banks for 2 wks to be provided via the country’s central bank, Reuters reported, citing a person in banking familiar with the matter
Starting with elections this Sunday in Greece and heading west to Ireland via Britain and Spain, polls show Europeans will vent their anger over issues from widening income disparities and record unemployment to unprecedented immigration
Europe and Japan need to weaken their currencies further to help revive growth in their domestic economies, according to Ray Dalio, the U.S. hedge fund manager who runs the $160b Bridgewater Associates
China’s commerce Ministry this week put forward a draft that could unify regulations overseeing foreign investment in China, scale back restrictions and begin regulating the variable interest entities that are commonly used to circumvent foreign-ownership limits
The Shenzhen government is holding talks with several property developers in a bid to orchestrate investments in Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., people familiar with the matter said today
83% of respondents to a Bloomberg Global Poll say the banking industry will continue cutting jobs this year; 61% say reductions will affect firms around the world, while 21% said most cuts will be in Europe and 1% said they’d be concentrated in the U.S.
Sovereign yields mostly higher. Asian stocks gain; European stocks mostly higher, U.S. equity-index futures rise. WTI and Brent steady; copper and gold fall
US Event Calendar

8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Jan. 17, est. 300k (prior 316k)
Continuing Claims, Jan. 10, est. 2.4m (prior 2.424m)
9:00am: FHFA House Price Index m/m, Nov., est. 0.3% (prior 0.6%)
9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Jan. 18 (prior 45.4)
11:00am: Kansas City Fed Manufac. Activity, Jan., est. 8 (prior 8)
* * *

DB's Jim Ried concludes the overnight summary

As we start a monumental day ahead with the ECB almost certain to announce QE - even if they are not yet fully ready to implement it - I can't help wondering what the date will be that we will be able to report that the ECB is out of the money printing game. Once they start it might be incredibly difficult to stop without a political accident on the negative side or a sustainable exogenous positive growth shock. If there is no political accident, will they still be buying bonds into the 2020s? Will they have bought other assets by then or will we have printed money to give directly to citizens before the next decade starts? When QE first started post crisis we felt money printing would be around for years and years. Several years later and we still can't see an end in sight even if the Fed is currently pausing and the SNB has shown that there is an alternative direction for some. So today likely starts a new chapter, even a new section of a book that is nowhere near finished.

The fact that the FT, WSJ and Bloomberg all carried similar stories yesterday suggesting that the ECB are considering buying 50bn Euros a month over one to two years gave markets hope that there could be a positive surprise relative to numbers discussed in similar leaks over the last couple of weeks. If accurate this would put potential expansion at over a trillion, although we have to net off repayments. 10 days ago markets were starting to get concerned that there might be only consensus for a €500bn scheme. However before we get too excited this seems to be one of the proposals being considered by the council. It could be that they are also considering a smaller package.

If we do get a plan that makes the trillion euro expansion eminently reachable it will likely further support our 2015 view that European equities and credit will out-perform absolutely and also relative to the US where there is no QE at the moment. The equity trade could last all year but European credit is getting more and more expensive relative to US credit so at some point in 2015 (maybe when Oil stabilises and the Fed become more dovish) the US will likely out-perform on a carry basis alone. So timing is key here but we don't think its yet.

Yesterday our European economics team published a note briefly summarising their views on what will happen today along with their thoughts on what current market consensus is. The note came out before the aforementioned press articles hit the wires but they make some interesting points about the design. They are concerned that the complexity of QE design means there is a chance of delay and their baseline expectation is that the ECB sends a clear signal of imminent QE today – by announcing for example that there is ‚broad consensus? for it – but that the actual vote awaits the final design input from staff in March. The team go into details in terms of the type of plan they expect in the note. They do highlight that the main risk to their view is that a formal decision for QE is taken today. For us it seems inevitable that an announcement will be made today even if we don't get full details until March. So stand by for a big day.

In terms of market reaction yesterday, European equities closed firmer although the moves were perhaps more muted than we’d have expected given the news, perhaps reflecting that there could be other proposals being voted on outside the one the press all picked up on. Indeed, the Stoxx 600 and Dax finished +0.61% and +0.41% respectively for their fifth consecutive day of gains although admittedly the former did bounce some +1.4% off its intraday lows after the ECB leaks hit the wires. Credit markets were also supported, Crossover closing around 9bps tighter on the day. The Euro swung around over the day, reaching an intraday high of 1.168 versus the Dollar before settling at 1.155, still +0.6% firmer on the day. Before all this, sentiment was somewhat weaker in markets. The Stoxx at one point hit an intraday low of -0.8% after the ECB’s Nowotny urged investors not to focus too much on the ECB outcome. Specifically, Nowotny was reported on Reuters saying that ‘central bankers, banks and policy-makers should always have more of a relaxed attitude to news and not get too excited of news of one day’ before going on to say that ‘my plea is to look at the long term and not get carried away’. Government bond yields across Europe sold off through the session. 10yr yields in Germany (+7.5bps) and France (+5.7bps) closed higher and yields in the periphery finished up 1-2bps.

On the other side of the pond, the S&P 500 finished +0.47% at the close, recovering somewhat with the rebound in oil markets. Both WTI (+1.31%) and Brent (+2.17%) pared back some of the previous day’s losses to close at $47.78/bbl and $49.03./bbl respectively – both markets appear to have found something a $2 range for the time being with prices generally unchanged versus the start of last week. Energy stocks (+1.83%) led the recovery although in reality it was a better day for all sectors. Economic data largely took a backseat. A better than expected housing starts print (+4.4% mom vs. +1.2% expected) was offset by softer building permits (-1.9% mom vs. +0.8% expected).

Treasuries had a notably weak day yesterday as the flight-to-quality play somewhat unwound on the back of the firmer risk tone elsewhere. The 10y benchmark yield closed about 8bps higher at 1.872%. In reality it has been a somewhat volatile year but strong year for Treasuries so far with the 10yr reaching an intraday high of 2.21% on the first trading day of 2015 versus an intraday low of 1.69% last Friday.

Speaking of the rates rally one of the key outperformers yesterday was Canada. Indeed, the 25bps cut by the BoC to 0.75% (its first move in four years) caught the market by surprise which drove the 10yr Canadian government bond yields 5.4bps lower to an all-time low of 1.433%. Canadian equities also closed some 1.8% firmer on the back of the dovish stance. The BoC pointed towards the downside risks to inflation and financial stability as a result of the oil price shocks whilst the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers yesterday also noted that capex in Western Canada could drop by as much as a third this year. What's more interesting for us though is the BoC move comes shortly after the recent surprise moves by the SNB, Danish and Indian Central Bank. These easing biases have also placed other DM central banks (eg RBA) somewhat under the spotlight. More importantly can the Fed still look to raise rates in a world where several central banks have already eased in 2015?

Indeed staying on this theme it was interesting to see that the minutes out of the Bank of England yesterday showed that two of the recent hawks who had previously called for the BoE to raise rates, switched their view to keeping rates unchanged. Yesterday’s data in the UK was largely mixed. Unemployment ticked down a notch to 5.8% (from 6%) however wage growth disappointed with underlying wages falling 0.2% mom. As a result of the mixed data and change of view from two recent hawks, DB’s George Buckley noted that he sees the BoE pushing the first rate hike out to May next year. George doesn’t expect the Bank to look through the weak (and what should continue to be) headline inflation.

Refreshing our screens this morning Asian equities are mostly trading on a firmer tone helped by the positive US lead yesterday. Bourses in Hong Kong and Australia are up +0.69% and +0.49% respectively whilst Korea is flat, as we go to print. The CSI 300 (+0.16%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.08%) have pared back initial losses after reassurances from Premier Li about the growth slowdown at Davos. The Premier said that China will still face large downward pressures in 2015 but won't have systemic financial risks and will seek to improve the quality of growth. The liquidity situation is also a little bit better on shore with the PBOC conducting reverse repo for the first time this year (RMB50bn via 7-day repo overnight). Similarly Asian credit markets are also trading on a stronger footing overnight with IG spreads generically 2-3bps tighter. New issues are also breaking inside re-offer after a hiatus of a couple days although they are still dominated by IG issuers so far. On the FX front the EUR is trading near its 11-year low overnight (1.159) ahead of the ECB meeting later today.

In terms of the day ahead data watchers can expect Italian industrial orders and retail sales, Spanish unemployment as well as public finance data from the UK. US jobless claims today will cover the period for January’s nonfarm payrolls. We also have the FHFA house price index and Kansas City Fed manufacturing index in the US today but all these will be secondary as all eyes will on ECB and Draghi today.

---------- Toegevoegd om 13:49 ---------- De post hierboven werd geplaatst om 13:49 ----------

As expected by most analysts, the ECB kept its rates unchanged for all three facilities. From the press release:

ECB Monetary Policy Decisions

At today's meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.05%, 0.30% and -0.20% respectively.

Further monetary policy measures will be communicated by the President of the E at a press conference starting at 2.30 p.m. CET today.
This is hardly surprising, although as HSBC accurately observed, if the ECB really wants to incentivize banks to sell their government bond holdings, it should have actually pushed rates higher.

In any event, as the ECB also noted, "Further monetary policy measures will be communicated by the President of the E at a press conference starting at 2.30 p.m. CET today." which is a key signal that a much bigger announcement is coming.

---------- Toegevoegd om 13:50 ---------- De post hierboven werd geplaatst om 13:49 ----------

On the surface, everything getting cheaper sounds like a dream come true. It’s not. The prospect is so terrifying that it’s prompted central bankers around the industrialized world to pour trillions of dollars into their economies to prevent a sustained drop in prices. The European Central Bank is projected to follow suit with an announcement as soon as Thursday.

Here’s why.

1. When shoppers see persistent price declines, they hold out on buying things. They ask, will I get a better deal next week, next month, next year? As a result, consumer spending flails. For most nations, that’s a big chunk of their economy, and any slowdown in consumption threatens growth.

2. Businesses behave pretty much the same way. They postpone buying raw materials, hoping to get a break on costs, and delay investing in that splashy new facility or hiring an extra hand.

3. Additionally, their pricing power -- the ability to charge more -- vanishes. That makes it harder for them to grow profits.

In such an environment, if companies want to grab a bigger market share, they have to slash prices. That makes things worse.

4. Lower profits = less money to go around to workers. Employees don’t get the raises they were expecting, they cut back on spending even more, and the ugly cycle repeats. That’s why they call it a deflationary spiral.


Photographer: Manuel Gutjahr/Getty Images
5. The sad thing is, even when prices are falling, the amount you owe doesn’t. Borrowers get crushed under the weight of that debt. In a mild scenario, companies and consumers hold back on other purchases to continue meeting their obligations. When things get really bad, they go bust altogether.

6. Policy makers usually have an antidote to economic slowdowns, but it’s trickier when interest rates are already near zero. That’s exactly the situation with the ECB and much of the industrialized world. That forces officials to turn to unconventional tools.

Policy makers have been raising and lowering interest rates for a long time but quantitative easing -- a Japanese invention from the 2000s -- is a relatively untested tool. Its effectiveness is still controversial among many economic circles.

---------- Toegevoegd om 13:51 ---------- De post hierboven werd geplaatst om 13:50 ----------

The European Central Bank is weighing a proposal to inject as much as 1.1 trillion euros into the euro zone's economy to stave off deflation, a dangerous downward spiral in prices. Under such a "quantitative easing" program, the ECB would buy the bonds of governments that use the euro.

What is this and what would it accomplish?

The first thing you need to know is that the euro zone economy is very, very weak. According to the statistics agency Eurostat, the unemployment rate is 11.5%. Growth in the euro zone is less than 1%. And recently the area has been experiencing deflation, a dangerous decline in prices that prompts people to delay making purchases and investments and drives down economic activity.

Why is the euro zone economy so bad?

Lots of reasons. The euro zone is a badly constructed amalgamation of countries with disparate economies that probably shouldn't have the same currency in the first place. Does it make sense for Germany to be using the same currency as Cyprus, and to have the same central bank? Not really. (Of course, there are many disparate state economies in the US; the differences is that the US also has fiscal unification that enables transfers from rich states to poor states.) Furthermore, policy hasn't been conducive to growth since the global economic crisis of 2008-2009. Governments have been told to cut their debts, preventing them from boosting their economies with higher spending.

What can Draghi do about it?

Well, one of the tools that the United States used to get out of its own slump in 2009 was this quantitative easing: The Federal Reserve bought hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. government bonds. The Fed could do this because it essentially controls the printing press and can create money at will. The idea behind the plan is that when the Fed goes out into the market and buys debt, it's pumping money into the system, which then might get used to buy loans, fund businesses, and boost asset prices. In the U.S., QE has worked OK. The recovery has been better than most, though still disappointingly slow by most people's standards.

The ECB is looking to do the same thing. The hope is that if it buys government bonds from the private sector, then the private sector will use that money to take risks (buy assets, make loans, etc.) and that that will boost the economy.

So it's that simple?

Well, no, nothing is that simple. There are all kinds of potential problems and complications. For one thing, the Germans -- who have lots of influence at the ECB and who have the strongest economy in the euro zone -- hate the idea. German policymakers despise the notion of central banks printing money, and they think governments should stay focused on debt reduction, and not have a central bank to slurp up their debt.

It's also tricky that in the euro zone, unlike in the U.S., you have many different governments issuing debt. The ultimate plan may not involve the ECB directly buying government bonds, but in having the national central bank of each country buy up the debt -- each country in the euro zone still has its own central bank.

And it's possible that the plan just doesn't work as planned. In theory, the money that the ECB pumps into the system will work its way into the real economy. In practice, it might not. Maybe people will just sit on their cash. Or maybe they'll use their cash to invest in Germany. Or they'll use it to buy U.S. government debt, which currently pays a greater yield than euro zone debt. Nobody seems all that optimistic that the plan will give the economy a huge boost.

Bottom line:

The euro zone has all kinds of structural flaws that are preventing robust growth -- the shared currency is one, as is the ongoing drive to reduce spending. With any luck, though, a more aggressive and expansive ECB can pump money into the system and help turn the ship around.

---------- Toegevoegd om 13:51 ---------- De post hierboven werd geplaatst om 13:51 ----------

They speak different languages, they come from different backgrounds, yet all have the same message of frustration that’s threatening to redraw the European political map over the next year.

Starting with elections this Sunday in Greece and heading west to Ireland via Britain and Spain, polls show Europeans will vent their anger over issues from widening income disparities and record unemployment to unprecedented immigration.

For Athens pensioner Irini Smyrni, the moment she’d had enough was when her younger daughter lost her job with the government last year. For Dublin florist Nicola Johns, it was when her business fell behind on rent.

“We pay, we pay, we pay,” said Smyrni, 73. “Our homeland unfortunately is taking us backwards -- paltry wages, miserable pensions -- and we’re looking for something better.”

English electrical technician David Liddle wants someone to stick up for people like him rather than immigrants and “scroungers.” Virginia Sanchez, an unpaid university researcher in Madrid, said she just grew tired of being failed by the usual politicians unable to improve her prospects.

“I keep going because there’s nothing else to do,” said Sanchez, 23, who graduated in biology last year.

Lost Citizens

Disaffection with what is seen as a ruling elite and a sense of being left behind in an increasingly globalized world are complaints heard across Europe on varying points of the political spectrum as the continent struggles to recover from successive waves of financial and economic crises.

“Political elites have lost track of their citizens, who feel insecure amid all the economic and social pressures,” said Daniela Schwarzer, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Europe program in Berlin. “There’s a growing questioning of the political establishment across Europe.”

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi today is expected to announce the latest efforts by his monetary policy makers to foster economic growth in the euro region by injecting money into the financial system. It’s unlikely to make enough of a difference to deter people from protesting at the ballot box.

The result is that people are abandoning parties used to being in government, those deemed safe to lead by creditors, investors and European bureaucrats.

“If the moderates of Europe do not get together and change things in a meaningful way, I believe there is a risk that the political extremists will be the biggest threat to the euro,” Ray Dalio, founder and majority owner of the $160-billion hedge fund manager Bridgewater Associates, said in a panel debate Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

This weekend, Smyrni will vote for Syriza, which has pledged to halt the spending cuts that were tied to Greece’s financial rescue. The party looks like it could unseat the government after narrowly losing in 2012. Liddle has switched allegiance to the anti-immigration U.K. Independence Party before an election on May 7.

Disintegrating Europe

Sanchez says Podemos in Spain is giving her hope as the party, founded only last year, tops opinion polls before a vote by the end of this year. Sinn Fein is doing the same for Johns. Irish elections are due by April next year at the latest.

“The underlying current of voter migration starts in Greece and is reflected elsewhere,” said Jens Bastian, an economist and former member of the European Commission’s Greek task force. “If you look at what may happen in Britain or Spain, and you still have a Syriza government in power by then, you’re looking at a completely different Europe.”

In the extreme, it’s a period that could lay the foundations for Greece leaving the euro and the U.K. ditching the European Union, unraveling decades of integration since World War II. At the least, it’s likely to send shockwaves through parliaments and financial institutions.

The euro has declined more than 14 percent against the dollar in the past year. In other currency markets, traders expect the pound to react to political wrangling after the U.K. election, with implied price volatility against the dollar for the next six months climbing to the highest since June 2012.

Strong Stomach

Borrowing costs for Greece, which triggered the continent’s debt crisis, already are rising again. The yield on 10-year government bonds jumped above 10 percent this month for the first time since September 2013.

“European political risk makes the investing environment only for those who have the intestinal fortitude to take a long-term view,” said Scott MacDonald, head of research at MC Asset Management Holdings LLC, an investment company in Stamford, Connecticut, with $400 million of assets. “Europeans confront a world that has been turned on its head, starting in 2008 and likely to continue for another few years.”

With three days to go until voting in Greece, Syriza is topping opinion polls, ahead of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s New Democracy. Socialist party Pasok barely scrapes 4 percent a little over five years since winning elections.

Only Choice

After voting New Democracy, Smyrni switched to Pasok when the party’s spending on state workers provided her family with a living. She said she has only one choice left.

Syriza will “make a change and maybe go toward something better,” said Smyrni.

The Greek economy has shrunk by a quarter, or about 50 billion euros ($58 billion), during a six-year recession that only ended in 2014. Joblessness still exceeds 25 percent, higher for women. A survey of 1,000 Greek households by the country’s largest association for small businesses found that 47 percent said their income didn’t cover their needs.

Smyrni and her husband rely on his pension of 650 euros a month. Their younger daughter is struggling as a single mother with two children after being dismissed from her job at the Culture Ministry, part of the reductions ordered by international creditors in return for rescue money.

Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras, who at 40 is the same age as Smyrni’s daughter, said the election will pave the way for policy changes across Europe and be followed by victories for Podemos in Spain and then Sinn Fein in Ireland.

Financial Torture

He said this month Greece can’t repay its debt as long as its creditors enforce “fiscal waterboarding” and signaled he will boost government spending.

A European Union survey published in December showed that unemployment remained the most important national concern of EU citizens, with the stagnating economy coming second. The feeling that the worst was still to come for the job market was the majority view in a dozen countries.

Spain has the highest jobless rate in Europe after Greece, leaving multilingual graduates on a fruitless quest for work. At about 24 percent, it’s four times the U.K.’s. and almost double that of neighboring Portugal, where an election is also due this year, though without the same backlash.

Sanchez, the researcher in Madrid, will vote for Podemos, founded by a pony-tailed university lecturer, Pablo Iglesias. Like many Spaniards her age, she lives at home and is supported by her family. She plans to leave to study abroad when the next academic year begins.

Spanish Order

“It’s very depressing to have studied for four years for a degree, to have paid for it, and to find there’s no possibility of finding a job,” she said over coffee with her friend Maria Villar at a Madrid café this month. “Something’s not working.”

The emergence of Podemos upended the political order in Spain, while the People’s Party led by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and the opposition Socialists scramble to respond. One or other of the two parties has governed for the past 32 years.

Villar left Spain in 2013 as youth unemployment exceeded 50 percent, to study in the U.S. Both were part of the group of demonstrators who took over Madrid’s central square, the Puerta del Sol, in 2010, to protest austerity and they see Podemos as a more structured version of that movement.

“If Podemos wins, I’ll come back,” said Villar, who also is 23 like her friend. “It would be like when Obama was elected in the U.S., maybe reality won’t change that much, but the very fact that it’s that guy in charge would be so important.”

English Beer

Like many Greeks or Irish, educated and skilled Spaniards have been leaving their country while poorer migrants often from former Communist countries have been settling.

That phenomenon is felt particularly acutely in the U.K., where the traditional dominance of the Conservatives and Labour Party has been disrupted by the emergence of the U.K. Independence Party, or UKIP, which opposes membership of the EU. UKIP’s gains, along with increasing support for the Greens and Scottish nationalists, mean the U.K. election in May is likely to produce the most fragmented parliament since the 1970s.

Liddle, 57, voted for the Conservatives, led by Prime Minister David Cameron, at every election: until now.

While Cameron has promised a referendum on EU membership if he wins, Liddle is more attracted by UKIP’s message. He says leader Nigel Farage, a privately educated former metals trader who styles himself as a beer-drinking man of the people, is “more my kind of person.”

Polish Competition

A former soldier who did four tours or Northern Ireland during the conflict there, Liddle has two sons. The elder, 30, works in retail in Germany. His 27-year-old makes his money in London erecting scaffolds for building work and has had to fend off competition from Polish migrants, he said.

“All the other parties are out of touch with the people,” Liddle said over tea in the pub where his wife works in Chatham, a town in southern England where UKIP is the most popular party. “I’d like to see change across the board, to see more being done for our sort of people. I’m a middle earner and we seem to take the brunt of it all the time.”

Since the good times came to an abrupt end in 2008, the U.K., Greece, Spain and Ireland either had to bail out their banks, request a bailout by the International Monetary Fund, EU and ECB, or a combination of both. They implemented about $400 billion of combined austerity measures.

Broken Promises

In Ireland, most polls show Sinn Fein is jostling for the lead as it takes on the two established parties that traded power since independence 93 years ago. The former political wing of the Irish Republican Army, re-branded itself as the most prominent opponent of cuts and tax increases. It’s led by Gerry Adams, a Northern Irish politician once synonymous with the conflict in Belfast.

Johns, 39, who manages Round Tower Flowers in Clondalkin, a west Dublin suburb, voted for the Labour Party, part of Ireland’s governing coalition, in 2011 and now backs Sinn Fein. She and her husband, who have three children, used to own their own store before getting into rental arrears.

“The majority of them have had broken promises,” said Johns, wrapping an orange bow around chrysanthemums, roses and lilies. “There’s disillusionment, big time. It’s very tough.”

People Weary

It all sets up what could be the biggest overhaul of the political order in Europe for a generation, and rather than a clash of ideologies, it’s the establishment being taken down by a disparate group of malcontents.

“People’s legitimate expectations have been dashed,” said Alan Ahearne, a former economist at the Federal Reserve who advised the Irish Finance Ministry between 2009 and 2011. “People can tolerate that for a short period, but they need to be able to see the recovery coming, and they can’t. And when they can’t see a recovery, they’ll turn to alternatives.”

Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan sees a public that’s been worn down by more than seven years of crisis and is no longer willing to follow the incumbent political class.

“People get weary. People get tired,” he said at a conference in Dublin this week. “There’s only one life to live and if a decade is taken out of it because of bad economic management, well then it’s no wonder that people lose heart and their governments lose support.”

 

[Brotoscience]

14.07 uur: Tina is nu Trina. There Really Is No Alternative. Enkel beleggen in aandelen, zegt Philippe Gijselsvan BNP Paribas.


Nog zo ene. Duidelijk het memo gewist dat aandelen overgewaardeerd zijn. Niemand heeft geduld tegenwoordig.

 

[JochemB]

eur/usd sprinter best short ging weer lekker vandaag.

had wel meer impact van supermario verwacht eigenlijk

 

[Big-T]

"Minister Dijsselbloem van Financiën benadrukt dat de ECB onafhankelijk is en dat zij dit besluit zonder bemoeienis van politici mag nemen."

Dit is zo'n BS. Onafhankelijk zijn is niet hetzelfde als zomaar alles mogen doen met het geld van de Europese burger. De politiek is er om de burger te vertegenwoordigen, moet dus zeker wat te zeggen hebben over de ECB als die beslissingen neemt die negatieve effecten hebben.

 

[Brotoscience]

eur/usd sprinter best short ging weer lekker vandaag.

had wel meer impact van supermario verwacht eigenlijk

Klik om te verkleinen...

eig best een jaar teruggaan.
Want opt moment da ecb praat over qe, was euro al dalende. Nog voor da qe er komt, hebben markten al op geanticipeerd. Als ge jaar of 2 terug gaat en nu naar kijkt, is daling van euro huge.
Ik herinner me nog da 1 euro 1,38 dollar was ergens in 2013.

En ja, we hebben het laagste nog nie gezien van euro. Elke week zal het ietsie dalen denk ik.

 

[Daster]

Apple aandeel is wat aan het terugkrabbelen. Heb kooporder gezet op $120

 

[bascross]

"Minister Dijsselbloem van Financiën benadrukt dat de ECB onafhankelijk is en dat zij dit besluit zonder bemoeienis van politici mag nemen."

Dit is zo'n BS. Onafhankelijk zijn is niet hetzelfde als zomaar alles mogen doen met het geld van de Europese burger. De politiek is er om de burger te vertegenwoordigen, moet dus zeker wat te zeggen hebben over de ECB als die beslissingen neemt die negatieve effecten hebben.

Klik om te verkleinen...

Het grappige is dat de ECB juist door dit besluit (en ook al eerdere maatregelen overigens) zijn geloofwaardigheid als onafhankelijke centrale bank kwijt is.

 

[JochemB]

eig best een jaar teruggaan.
Want opt moment da ecb praat over qe, was euro al dalende. Nog voor da qe er komt, hebben markten al op geanticipeerd. Als ge jaar of 2 terug gaat en nu naar kijkt, is daling van euro huge.
Ik herinner me nog da 1 euro 1,38 dollar was ergens in 2013.

En ja, we hebben het laagste nog nie gezien van euro. Elke week zal het ietsie dalen denk ik.

Klik om te verkleinen...

hmja das wel zo, mja toen was ik niet aanwezig op de speculantenmarkt.


asml, ben benieuwd. Als ze straks die nieuwe technologie weten te kunnen realiseren gaat die koers richting de 200

sprinter staat erop iig

 

[Brotoscience]

Het aantal banen in de VS groeide in februari met 295.000. Economen hadden slechts 235.000 nieuwe arbeidsplaatsen voorspeld. Bovendien daalde de werkloosheidsgraad onverwacht met 0,2 procent naar 5,5 procent, het laagste peil sinds mei 2008.

Klik om te verkleinen...

Tgaat nie goe me amerika....volgens de dbb muh shiller types

 

[JochemB]

god***domme, hoop geld verloren op sprinter asml
gelukkig maakte sprinter op eur/usd wat goed...

 

[Brotoscience]

Zaterdag education, courtesy of detijd.

10:55 - 07/03/2015

Sla munt uit de val van de euro
De euro tuimelde donderdag onder 1,1 dollar. Steeds meer strategen zien de euro vervellen tot een dollarbiljet. We overlopen de oorzaken en de gevolgen voor de economie en voor uw beleggingen.


Slecht nieuws voor de New York fans: het is elf jaar geleden dat uw favoriete citytrip nog zo duur was. Dit jaar alleen al is de euro 11 procent gedaald tegenover de dollar. Sinds de piek in april 2008 staat de euro zelfs 32 procent lager.

De euro daalt trouwens niet alleen tegenover de dollar. Ook ten opzichte van andere wereldmunten zoals het Britse pond of de Japanse yen verliest de vervanger van de Belgische frank terrein. In vergelijking met de korf van tien belangrijkste munten noteert de euro 7 procent lager dan aan het begin van het jaar.

1. Wat veroorzaakt de daling van de euro?
De duik van de euro is vooral te wijten aan Mario Draghi, de voorzitter van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB). Vanaf maandag start de ECB met de aankoop van staatsobligaties om de inflatie en de groei in de eurozone aan te wakkeren. En Draghi liet er donderdag geen twijfel over bestaan: hij plant zijn programma volledig uit te voeren. In totaal zal zo de komende twee jaar 1.140 miljard euro naar de banken en beleggers stromen.

In de VS daarentegen ziet het plaatje er volledig tegenovergesteld uit. De economie is er de voorbije jaren zo sterk hersteld dat de centrale bank volop aan een eerste renteverhoging denkt. De verwachting is dat Fed-voorzitster Janet Yellen rond de zomer een strenger beleid gaat voeren.

ING-econoom Philippe Ledent: ‘Wat we zien is heel normaal. De Fed werkt aan een renteverhoging, dus zal het rendement op beleggingen in dollar hoger liggen. Beleggers wachten heus niet tot de ECB haar verse stimulus begint om voor de dollar te kiezen.’

2. Hoe evolueert de euro verder?
De euro stormt af op pariteit, 1 euro voor 1 dollar dus. Toen Mario Draghi zijn bazooka vorig jaar steeds nadrukkelijker in stelling bracht, doken ook de eerste voorspellingen van een gelijke koersverhouding op. De meeste economen onthaalden die prognose toen nog op hoongelach. Maar als de euro in het huidige tempo blijft dalen, is de pariteit over enkele weken een feit. Het zou trouwens van 2002 geleden zijn dat u maar één dollar voor een euro betaalde.

Toch waarschuwt menig analist dat de euro niet lijnrecht naar een wisselkoers van 1 op 1 met de dollar zal duiken. ‘Veel Europese beleggers zitten op dit moment op een pak winst in dollar. Als de euro een beetje stijgt, zullen ze die winst nemen. Dat kan een tijdelijke stijging van de euro op zijn beurt weer versterken’, zegt Kristof Wauters (BNP Paribas Fortis).

3. Is de lage euro goed of slecht nieuws?
De zwakke euro is geen reden voor een feestje. ‘Het zou beter zijn dat de euro stijgt. Dat zou een teken zijn dat economie goed draait’, merkt Ledent op.

Etienne de Callataÿ, hoofdeconoom bij Bank Degroof, zit op dezelfde lijn: ‘De lage euro is de weerspiegeling van de zwakkere economie. En een lagere munt is ook een vertaling van structurele verschillen. Het vertelt bijvoorbeeld dat de potentiële groei lager is.’ De potentiële groei is de groei die een land kan volhouden zonder dat er een opstoot van inflatie dreigt.

‘Maar een zwakkere munt is ook gezond’, gaat de Callataÿ verder. ‘Het is een manier waarop de eurozone zijn achterstand deels dicht kan lopen. De dalende wisselkoers geeft onze economie een duwtje in de rug, terwijl de groei in de VS afkoelt. Net dat mechanisme is in de eurozone uitgeschakeld door de gemeenschappelijke munt.’

De Callataÿ wijst voorts op het belang voor de inflatie, het smeermiddel van onze economie. De lage euro maakt ingevoerde producten duurder, waardoor de kans op een Japanscenario met decennia van deflatie en gebrek aan groei verkleint.

Even belangrijk is dat de goedkope euro de concurrentiepositie van de Europese bedrijven versterkt. ‘Onze exportpositie verbetert duidelijk’, zegt Ledent (ING). ‘Zeker voor een kleine open economie als België is dat heel belangrijk. Onze uitvoer gaat vooral naar andere eurolanden, maar van daaruit vertrekken producten naar de rest van de wereld. Als toeleverancier aan Duitse fabrieken hebben we belang bij een lage euro.’

4. Wat betekent de daling van de euro voor uw aandelenportefeuille?
Een pak Europese bedrijven verdienen dollars met hun activiteiten. Door de dalende wisselkoers krijgen ze nu fors meer euro’s voor hun ‘greenbacks’. Dat laat zich ook stevig voelen in de resultaten. Enkele voorbeelden: Petercam raamt dat de bedrijfswinst van de chipfabrikant Melexis met 2 miljoen euro stijgt voor elke stijging van de dollar met 5 cent. En voor de zinkexpert Nyrstar geldt dat elke stijging van de dollar met 1 cent, de bedrijfskasstroom met 18 miljoen toeneemt.

‘Dollarverdieners en exportkampioenen zijn duidelijk in trek op de beurs’ merkt ook Werner Wuyts. De strateeg van het beurshuis Dierickx Leys wijst op de forse koersopstoot van bijvoorbeeld de consumentenreus Unilever, de drankproducent Pernod Ricard of de luxewarengroep LVMH. ‘Wij zetten al langer in op het thema van de stijgende dollar’, stelt Wuyts. ‘Dat kan op twee manieren. Je kiest voor Europese bedrijven die veel verkopen in dollar of voor ondernemingen uit de VS die alleen op de thuismarkt actief zijn.’ Geen Amerikaanse iconen als Coca Cola of Procter & Gamble dus, maar nationale kampioenen zoals de telecomgroep AT&T en de bankenreus Wells Fargo.

‘Europese aandelen vallen zeker te verkiezen boven Amerikaanse’, meent Dirk Thiels. De hoofdstrateeg van KBC Asset Management ziet daar meerdere redenen toe. Zo spelen in Europa de goedkope euro en het herstel de bedrijven in de kaart, terwijl in de VS de dure dollar op de resultaten begint te wegen. Ook de waarderingen geven Europa het voordeel. De Stoxx Europe 600 noteert tegen 16 keer de winst voor dit jaar, terwijl op Wall Street voor de S&P500 18 keer de winst betaald moet worden.

Thiels verwacht nog een inhaalbeweging van meer cyclische aandelen. ‘Normaal drijven die een rally aan, maar tot nu deden vooral defensieve aandelen het goed.’ Dat toont dat beleggers en masse voor stabiele dividendbetalers kozen als alternatief voor de lage rente. KBC AM verwacht een inhaalrace van producenten van consumentengoederen, genre Volkswagen en JC Decaux.

5. Wat betekent de daling van de euro voor uw obligatieportefeuille?
Door het lagerentebeleid van de ECB levert een belangrijk deel van de Europese staatsobligaties vandaag een negatief rendement. Enkel obligaties van mindere kwaliteit en dus meer risico leveren vandaag nog enige return. De kelderende euro maakt daarom beleggingen in vreemde munt meer dan ooit interessant. ‘Of je daalt diep af in de kelders van de kredietkwaliteit, of je verschuift het risico dat je neemt van de uitgever naar de wisselkoers’, somt Kristof Wauters (BNP Paribas Fortis) de opties op.

De obligatie-expert mikt op kortlopende obligaties in dollar met een vlottende rente, omdat een strenger beleid van de Fed vooral de korte rente kan doen stijgen. Met een langere looptijd is dollarpapier van kwaliteitsbedrijven zoals General Elec-tric interessant.

In Europa blijft de Noorse kroon op de radar staan. ‘De kroon is enorm gedaald door de halvering van de olieprijs, maar onderliggend is de economie gezond. De obligaties bieden dus een hogere rente en zijn toch redelijk defensief.’

Wie meer risico wil nemen, kan naar groeimunten kijken, maar wel van uitgevers met een zeer hoge kwaliteit. Wauters tipt op de obligaties met een lange looptijd van de Europese Investeringsbank in Braziliaanse real. ‘Die leveren een rendement van 10 procent. De real staat wel op zijn laagste peil ooit, maar de centrale bank neemt de juiste maatregelen. Brazilië zal tijd vragen, obligaties in real zijn dus voor beleggers die niet alle dagen naar de wisselkoers kijken.’

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[Big-T]

Tgaat nie goe me amerika....volgens de dbb muh shiller types

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Ja als je de gemanipuleerde cijfers van de overheid gelooft...

 

[Brotoscience]

Da neigt een beetje naar conspiracy theorie denken.

---------- Toegevoegd om 11:42 ---------- De post hierboven werd geplaatst om 11:41 ----------

Bewijzen daarvoor?

 

[Gast 3469]

Da neigt een beetje naar conspiracy theorie denken. ---------- Toegevoegd om 11:42 ---------- De post hierboven werd geplaatst om 11:41 ---------- Bewijzen daarvoor?

Klik om te verkleinen...

elke idioot weet dat strikte werkloosheidsmaatstaven een te rooskleurig beeld geven van de situatie.(o.a. door discouraged workers e.d.)

dat krijg je ervan als je alleen maar krantjes leest en geen achterliggende kennis hebt om het nieuws fatsoenlijk te kunnen interpreten. maar dat maakt toch niet uit, zolang je maar muh shiller kan roepen is jouw dag weer goed of niet.

 

[bascross]

elke idioot weet dat strikte werkloosheidsmaatstaven een te rooskleurig beeld geven van de situatie.(o.a. door discouraged workers e.d.)

dat krijg je ervan als je alleen maar krantjes leest en geen achterliggende kennis hebt om het nieuws fatsoenlijk te kunnen interpreten. maar dat maakt toch niet uit, zolang je maar muh shiller kan roepen is jouw dag weer goed of niet.

Klik om te verkleinen...

True story. Het is algemeen bekend dat werklozen die het hebben opgegeven een baan te zoeken(heel veel uiteraard) niet worden meegenomen in de cijfers. Niets met conspiracy theorieën te maken.

 

[Big-T]

En part-time workers tellen als volledige jobs, zelfs als je 1 uur per week werkt lol... Alle overheden manipuleren cijfers of stellen de economie rooskleuriger voor dan ze is, China en de VS op kop. Zie ook http://www.shadowstats.com

 

[Brotoscience]

elke idioot weet dat strikte werkloosheidsmaatstaven een te rooskleurig beeld geven van de situatie.(o.a. door discouraged workers e.d.)

dat krijg je ervan als je alleen maar krantjes leest en geen achterliggende kennis hebt om het nieuws fatsoenlijk te kunnen interpreten. maar dat maakt toch niet uit, zolang je maar muh shiller kan roepen is jouw dag weer goed of niet.

Klik om te verkleinen...

Er zijn meer jobs gecreerd dan verwacht. Dat zijn geen werkloosheidcijfers. Analisten verwachten er 250, het waren er 290.000. Beter lezen en het nieuws opvolgen jongeman.

En gerespecteerde economen onthalen macro economische data v usa als positief.
Wie zou ik geliven, de tijd en hun bronnen of een random dbber die voorspelt dat de crash er '''nu ongeveer wel zou komen'''


---------- Toegevoegd om 19:02 ---------- De post hierboven werd geplaatst om 18:57 ----------

True story. Het is algemeen bekend dat werklozen die het hebben opgegeven een baan te zoeken(heel veel uiteraard) niet worden meegenomen in de cijfers. Niets met conspiracy theorieën te maken.

Klik om te verkleinen...

hetzelfde onzin verspreid je al jaren.
Als je zelf daarmee rekening houdt, dan dalen het aantal werklozen.

Ten tweede, er zijn meer jobs gecreerd dan verwacht.

Consumenten geven ook meer uit.

 

[bascross]

Gelukkig hebben we broto. De grootste mong**l van dbb die werkelijk nog nooit een argument heeft gegeven voor alle onzin die hij post.